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Gold in Hong Kong
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Golden era: prices surge as rally heads towards US$5,000 in 2026, analysts forecast

Rate cuts, geopolitical tensions and central banks’ buying spree push gold prices up by 72 per cent in 2025 – the biggest annual jump ever

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Gold prices break through the US$4,500-per-ounce mark for the first time. Photo: AFP
Enoch Yiu

Gold has hit multiple records in 2025, but analysts believe the rally is far from over, with some forecasting the yellow metal could climb to US$5,000 per ounce amid geopolitical tensions and a buying spree by central banks.

Spot gold broke through the US$4,500-per-ounce mark for the first time, reaching a record US$4,510 on Christmas Eve on Wednesday, which was 72 per cent higher than the end of last year, when it stood at US$2,624.

This was the biggest annual jump for the precious metal, exceeding the 70 per cent rise in 1979, according to Brian Fung, CEO of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange. The increase followed a 26 per cent surge in 2024.
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Local prices rose in tandem, with gold in Hong Kong hitting a record HK$41,855 (US$5,382) per tael (37.51 grams) on Monday, according to the exchange.

Fung expected the rally to continue in 2026, with prices potentially hitting US$5,000 per ounce.

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“The gold rally in 2025 was driven by expectations of interest-rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump,” Fung told the Post. “Individual investors and central banks wanted to diversify away from US dollar assets, and gold became a safe-haven alternative.”
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