Can Hong Kong’s 4.8 million MPF members repeat record gains in Year of the Horse?
Volatility looms in the Year of the Horse, analysts forecast, after the Year of the Snake delivered estimated earnings of US$32 billion
The Year of the Horse is set to bring volatility for the investments of Hong Kong’s 4.8 million Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) members, following a record-breaking Year of the Snake that ended on Monday, according to analysts.
The next zodiac year, which begins on Tuesday, is the seventh in the Chinese lunar calendar’s 12-year cycle, each represented by an animal.
The Year of the Snake delivered estimated earnings of HK$251.6 billion (US$32 billion), the highest on record since the MPF was launched in 2000, according to MPF Ratings, an independent pension research firm. Earnings and contributions pushed MPF assets to HK$1.59 trillion at the end of January.
As of February 11, the 378 MPF investment funds had gained 18.8 per cent in the Year of the Snake, much higher than the three preceding years. Members earned 12.3 per cent in the Year of the Dragon in 2024, and suffered losses of 4.5 per cent in the Year of the Rabbit in 2023 and 7.8 per cent in the Year of the Tiger in 2022, according to MPF Ratings.
Francis Chung, chairman of MPF Ratings, said the outlook for the Year of the Horse was “modest and inconclusive”, based on past records. In the last Year of the Horse in 2014, the MPF investment funds earned 2.2 per cent, while in 2002 they lost 0.4 per cent.