Morgan Stanley sees mainland China property market slump extending into 2026
The US investment bank expects limited policy support from Beijing next year despite few signs of a turnaround in the sector
Mainland China’s property market will remain under pressure in the first quarter of next year as weak monthly sales show few signs of a turnaround, according to Morgan Stanley.
Sales at the country’s top 100 developers fell 36 per cent in November from a year earlier to 184 billion yuan (US$26 billion), according to Morgan Stanley, which used data compiled by China Real Estate Information Corp (CRIC). In the first 11 months, developers recorded 2.71 trillion yuan in sales, a decrease of 19 per cent from a year earlier.
Adding to the uncertainty, the private data agency CRIC withheld its regular monthly sales update for the top 100 developers. The data, which is published at the end of every month, is closely watched by analysts for signs of market shifts.
“We believe sluggish sales may prolong into the first quarter of 2026 owing to weak buyer sentiment, reactive policy roll-out and a high base,” said Stephen Cheung, an equity analyst at the bank, in a report on Tuesday.
The US investment bank reiterated its cautious view that significant housing policy changes were unlikely in the coming months, despite growing calls for stronger measures to stabilise the sector. The slowdown would be driven by subdued buyer sentiment, limited policy support and broader economic uncertainty, the bank added.