Opinion | US and China must avoid the tragedy of armed conflict over Taiwan

More than anything else, the message from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was one of continuity. Xi Jinping continues to serve as the party’s top leader, and his signature concepts such as “Chinese modernisation”, “high-quality development”, “common prosperity” and “community with a shared future” remain prominent in the 20th national congress report.

Washington has already cast Xi’s China as the most serious geopolitical challenge the United States is facing. The Biden administration’s latest national security strategy, released on the eve of the 20th congress, asserts that China is the only competitor with the intent and ability to reshape the international order. This means America’s competitive strategy vis-à-vis China will only increase in scope and intensity.

Beijing is fully aware of this. In his report to the 20th national congress, Xi said that China must be “be ready to withstand high winds, choppy waters, and even dangerous storms”. Given rising geopolitical conflict, high inflation and energy and food crises around the world, the global economic situation is becoming incredibly grim, and China is not immune.

At the same time, China also has to deal with daunting challenges at home, such as youth unemployment, an ageing population, income inequality and ecological sustainability. In the CPC’s view, these adverse factors are exactly why domestic political stability is needed, to weather the coming storms; this point was repeatedly hammered home in the 20th national congress report.

It is at this juncture that America is attempting a managed economic and technological “decoupling” from China. In particular, the Biden administration issued unprecedented chip export controls on October 7, which were widely seen as an attempt to halt China’s progress in chip manufacturing and other advanced electronic industries.