China population: 2021 birth data to offer fresh insight into demographic crisis

Annual data will show whether China’s number of births and birth rate hit record lows in 2021, and will give breakdowns in terms of age, gender and residence

Demographic figures from the National Bureau of Statistics also factor into the national economic performance report due on Monday

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Annual data on Monday should show whether China’s total births and birth rate hit record lows in 2021. Photo: Shutterstock

Published: 6:30pm, 16 Jan 2022

When China unveils its 2021 birth totals on Monday, the revelation will cast the spotlight on the impact of the three-child policy in its debut year – a year that featured widespread and high-level discussions over how the nation must address its worsening demographic crisis.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is also expected to release 2021’s year-end population, annual birth rate and breakdowns in terms of age, gender and residence, according to the official schedule and conventional practices.

The demographic figures will factor into 2021’s national economic performance report that should also come out on Monday. That report will give China’s economic growth rate in 2021.

Annual data will also show whether the country’s number of births and birth rate hit record lows in 2021, shedding fresh light on how soon the total population could start declining.

That would offer a long-awaited official gauge of the country’s current demographic status following the once-a-decade census results that were revealed in May. Those results showed that births in 2020 drop sharply to 12 million – down from 14.65 million in 2019, and the lowest point in a nearly six decades.

Beijing responded by further loosening its controversial birth restrictions, allowing couples to have up to three children.

Experts have warned that the country could hit its demographic breaking point more quickly than previously expected, resulting in a dwindling labour force, a strained pension system, and a rethink of Beijing’s inward-facing consumption strategy known as dual circulation.

“We estimated that the number of national births in 2021 will drop by 13-20 per cent from 2020 – the number will be between 9.5 million and 10.5 million,” said YuWa Population Research, a think tank established by some of the nation’s leading advocates for lifting birth restrictions, in a report published last month.