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China’s high-speed rail nears 50,000km milestone – but debt and profit concerns mount

The network dwarfs global rivals and has reshaped domestic travel – but analysts warn debt levels cannot be ignored

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A volunteer holds leaflets as he stands near a 600km/h High Speed Maglev model showcasing at the National Railway Test Center during a tour by delegates to the World Congress on High-Speed Rail held in Beijing, on July 9. Photo: AP
Carol Yangin Beijing
After a construction boom spanning nearly two decades, China’s high-speed rail (HSR) network has made record-breaking strides. But to ensure long-term sustainability, analysts said the government needs to address challenges around commercial profitability and mounting debt.
The warnings came ahead of the next five-year plan, covering the years 2026-2030, in which policymakers will decide whether to take on more debt to expand the 48,000-kilometre network – already the world’s largest, surpassing the combined lengths of those in Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom.
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On one hand, Beijing has succeeded in building the network at a breakneck pace, while maintaining safety and achieving record travel speeds. Recently tested maglev trains have topped 600km/h, and a new generation of bullet trains capable of 400km/h could cut travel time between Beijing and Shanghai – China’s two main cities – by more than one hour, reducing the four-hour journey to three.

But some analysts have urged officials to hit the brakes.

“Many newly built HSR lines should not have been built, if assessed according to the standards set by the central government,” said Zhao Jian, a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University.

As a manufacturing powerhouse, China needs greater freight capacity – especially for bulk commodities – but high-speed rail, which typically runs at about 300km/h, is limited to carrying passengers as the speed of travel is unsuitable for transporting heavy loads, he said.

In March 2021, the State Council issued guidelines calling for stricter assessments of new lines where parallel routes already exist. But the network continues to expand, reaching 48,000 kilometres by the end of 2024.

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China State Railway Group, the main operator, has set a 50,000-kilometre target for this year despite accruing a mountain of debt since it launched construction on the network in 2008 – with levels reaching 6.2 trillion yuan (US$863 billion) by the end of 2024, according to the firm’s balance sheets.

The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 63.5 per cent, with most funding financed through bank loans and bond sales, it said.

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