As more of China becomes ‘moderately aged’, how will its economy change?
Much of China has passed a key demographic threshold as the population ages, making adaptations necessary for policymakers and businesses
Early in the morning in cities across China, groups of people gather in public squares, moving as one in slow, deliberate tai chi routines. Many are in their sixties or seventies – an age group that has long defined the rhythm of daily life in much of the country.
As of last year, 20 of the country’s more than 30 provincial-level regions had entered what demographers call a “moderately-aged society”, where at least 14 per cent of residents are aged 65 or above, or one-fifth are over 60.
In 2018, only six of these regions – Liaoning, Shanghai, Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangsu and Chongqing – had reached the threshold, according to contemporaneous records from China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
That trend, compounded by a steady decline in birth rates, means the country’s working-age cohort is also on the wane, creating a major challenge for policymakers as they seek to ensure sustainable economic growth.
“The impact of population ageing on China’s economic structure is broad, multidimensional and deeply rooted, and it affects nearly every aspect of the economy,” said Xia Ri, a researcher with Anbound, a Beijing-based public policy consultancy.