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China food security
EconomyChina Economy

China’s soybean revolution: the change that rewrote global trade and tested food security

The shift from soybean exporter to world’s top buyer has reshaped global markets and forced Beijing to confront new security risks

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Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen
Mandy Zuoin Shanghai
Soybeans are more than just a crop – they have become a litmus test of Beijing’s evolving food security strategy and sit at the heart of the US-China trade war.
As a crucial source of animal feed and cooking oil, soybeans have remained a flashpoint throughout the ebbs and flows of the two nations’ trade disputes, from the tariff war during US President Donald Trump’s first term to the current one.
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Less well known is China’s transformation from soybean exporter to the world’s leading importer. Spanning three decades, researchers believe the shift reflects evolving domestic needs and the impact of policy reforms, international agreements and technological innovations aimed at bolstering food security.

Today, China imports about 100 million tonnes a year – about 60 per cent of global trade in the commodity – an evolution that has reshaped international markets and farmers' livelihoods.

In proposals released in late October for the 15th five-year plan, Beijing called for efforts to “diversify agricultural imports and better align trade with domestic production” – underscoring the country’s persistent impact on one of the world’s most traded commodities.

“It seems necessary for China to be self-reliant on soybeans [given current geopolitical risks], but it’s impossible to actually achieve this,” said Zheng Fengtian, a professor from Renmin University in Beijing who has studied Chinese agriculture for over two decades.

The country’s limited arable land cannot accommodate the crop at the scale required, he said, while attempting to produce all soybeans domestically would divert land away from critical staple grains – ultimately threatening food security.
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From exporter to world’s top importer

The roots of Beijing’s dilemma can be traced back to the early 1990s, when China was a net exporter of soybeans – a crop believed to have been domesticated in the country over 6,000 years ago. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, output peaked at 16 million tonnes in 1994, driven by large-scale cultivation in fertile, black soil-rich northeastern regions such as Heilongjiang province.

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