Advertisement
China GDP
EconomyChina Economy

China’s Guangdong targets doubling GDP by 2035 despite slowing growth

Southern province in Greater Bay Area has fallen short of national average since 2021, but new proposals pin hope on hi-tech industries

3-MIN READ3-MIN
2
Listen
An aerial drone photo taken on March 12, 2024, shows Guangzhou in south China’s Guangdong province. Photo: Xinhua
He Huifengin Guangdong
Guangdong, China’s largest provincial economy, has vowed to double its economy by 2035 from 2022 levels, in line with the central government’s target of becoming a medium-level developed country by that year.

“Looking ahead, from the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party (in 2022) to 2035, Guangdong aims to achieve socialist modernisation and build a modern, new Guangdong within 13 years,” provincial authorities said in their five-year plan proposals released on Monday.

Advertisement

“By that time, the province’s total economic output will have doubled, and regional per capita gross domestic product will reach the level of moderately developed countries.”

Guangdong’s GDP in 2022 stood at about 13 trillion yuan (US$1.84 trillion). Doubling that figure by 2035 would bring it to about 26 trillion yuan, equivalent to the world’s seventh-largest economy today – ahead of France and behind the UK.

To reach that goal, Guangdong would need to sustain average annual growth of more than 5 per cent over the next decade – well above its current pace. The proposals emphasise technological innovation and emerging industries as central growth drivers, but analysts and local entrepreneurs warn that structural challenges make the target ambitious.

“Faced with declining real estate investment, the shift of manufacturing industries out of China, and vacant factory and office spaces, existing solutions are limited for Guangdong,” said Peng Peng, executive chairman of the Guangdong Society of Reform, a think tank affiliated with the provincial government.

Peng said the province’s average growth rate over the past five years stood at about 4.1 per cent – below the national average. To double GDP by 2035, emerging and future industries would have to drive the next wave of growth, he added.

Advertisement
Guangdong has been China’s largest regional economy since 1989, buoyed by its manufacturing prowess and a cluster of tech giants like Huawei Technologies and DJI, the world leader in drone technology. But growth has fallen short of national targets in recent years due to a sluggish real estate market and the impact of US tariffs on exports.
Select Voice
Select Speed
1.00x