China’s record trade surplus could prompt protectionist response in 2026: report
American researchers say restrictions on Chinese imports could help create complications for Beijing’s economic growth target next year
Though export performance remains the “most important” variable for China's real economic growth rate next year, trade measures adopted by other countries and weaker demand will also have an impact, according to Rhodium Group co-founder Daniel Rosen.
Changes to external demand and inventory restocking in developed economies – which the International Monetary Fund expects will see a continuous slowdown in 2026 – remain risks to China’s export hopes according to Monday’s report from Rhodium, which Rosen co-authored.
In the first 11 months of 2025, China’s trade surplus surpassed the US$1 trillion benchmark set in the whole of last year – an achievement Rosen attributed to the country’s endeavours to diversify its trade and the depreciation of the real exchange rate, a trend he said was consistent with domestic deflationary pressures.
“These lower prices have allowed China to diversify its exports away from the United States,” Rosen added.