China’s marriage rebound: will more 2025 knots bring more baby bumps in 2026?
Double-digit jump in registration rate, boosted by policy and cultural tradition, offers modest upturn, but demographers are wary of weak fertility intentions
China’s marriage registrations edged up in 2025, offering a glimmer of hope for the birth outlook this year, but analysts caution that deeper demographic headwinds remain entrenched and difficult to reverse without broader policy support.
China recorded 6.76 million marriage registrations nationwide in 2025, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, marking a 10.8 per cent increase from a year earlier, or 657,000 more couples.
The number of marriage registrations is closely watched in China, as it typically serves as a strong indicator of birth trends in the following year, with extramarital births still considered taboo in many parts of the country.
The nation’s shrinking population, compounded by a rapidly ageing demographic, has proved problematic for Beijing’s efforts to revive economic growth. Economists and demographers have noted that, with a shrinking workforce and fewer workers to support each retiree, China risks weaker productivity gains; mounting pension and healthcare burdens; and a prolonged drag on domestic demand.
China’s total population fell by 3.39 million in 2025 to 1.4049 billion, from 1.4083 billion a year earlier, according to official data. By sheer numbers, that marked the steepest annual population decline on record, apart from during China’s devastating famine from 1959 to 1961.