Why DHL is betting on rising Chinese exports – even as war and tariff risks grow

Global trade flows are facing severe disruption amid the US-Israel war on Iran and unpredictable tariff policies. But logistics giant DHL still expects its revenues to soar in the coming years thanks in large part to Chinese companies’ rising global ambitions.

The resilience of China’s outbound trade is a major reason DHL has maintained such an ambitious growth target even amid the Middle East crisis and constantly changing trade barriers, according to Oscar de Bok, CEO of the firm’s global forwarding and freight business.

The German-headquartered multinational has set a goal of growing its revenues 50 per cent by 2030, compared with 2023 levels, and it sees medium-sized Chinese companies as a key customer base, he said during a group interview in Shanghai on Tuesday.

“If you look at the overall global supply chain, China plays a crucial role,” de Bok said. “The flow from China to the rest of the world is still increasing.”

Despite all the recent global turbulence – with disruptions occurring “almost every six months” since the Covid-19 pandemic – global trade flows have remained remarkably resilient, with supply chains becoming longer, not shorter, according to de Bok.

The average distance products travel to market “is actually still increasing”, the executive said. “Many companies have to organise their global flows differently. That creates additional complexity, meaning the logistics market as a whole is growing.”