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EconomyGlobal Economy

US-led diversification push tests India’s potential as a China supply chain alternative

  • There is a growing consensus among policymakers and analysts that India is emerging as an alternative production base to China
  • But the country must address challenges ranging from red tape to skills shortages if it wants to capitalise on Western diversification

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India is emerging as an alternative production base to China amid efforts by Western nations to diversify. Photo: AFP
Ananta Agarwal

As Western nations become increasingly concerned about over-reliance on China, few countries stand to gain more than India.

In her first visit to New Delhi as US Treasury secretary earlier this month, Janet Yellen described India as an “indispensable partner” in the US’ quest to diversify its supply chains.

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A day later, former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd expressed a similar sentiment.

“As someone who’s dealt with India for the last 20 years, for the first time, I became convinced that they are about to attempt a significant policy shift,” said Rudd during a business conference in Singapore.

Rudd’s words highlight a growing consensus among policymakers and analysts that India is emerging as an alternative production base to China.

India is hoping to benefit economically from Western concerns about growing Chinese hegemony
Sadanand Dhume

“What we are seeing geopolitically is effectively a new cold war,” said Sadanand Dhume, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. “Against this backdrop, India is hoping to benefit economically from Western concerns about growing Chinese hegemony.”

While China’s growth outlook has been slashed to 4.4 per cent next year by the International Monetary Fund, investment bank Morgan Stanley has projected India’s economy to expand at 6.1 per cent on its way to becoming the world’s third largest by 2027.
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India is also part of the Quad, an alliance that includes the United States, Australia and Japan, which is “the most potent symbol” of its growing union with the West, said Dhume.
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