What economic cards will China play with Japan? Analysts say Beijing faces a balancing act
Beijing seen balancing need to retaliate against Tokyo with risk of alienating foreign investors; experts expect cautious strategy
Beijing is expected to calibrate its response to Japan with caution, weighing potential punitive measures against the risk of economic blowback, analysts say. And while China possesses an arsenal of levers – from tourism curbs to export controls – the experts warn that a heavy hand could backfire.
“China won’t move abruptly,” said Xu Weijun, an assistant research professor with the Institute of Public Policy at the South China University of Technology.
He noted that economic interdependence means that any aggressive strike would rebound onto China at a time when Beijing wants to project itself as an open, rules-based trading power fighting protectionism.
“Leaning too heavily on economic countermeasures could undercut that strategy and unsettle foreign investors and partners,” Xu said.
An infuriated Beijing – viewing Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary – has already responded by escalating travel warnings, suspending film screenings, and signalling a ban on Japanese seafood while ceasing talks to resume beef imports.