China bets big on copper, but ‘weaponisation’ risks low, unlike with rare earths: analysts
Beijing views copper as critical for EVs and AI, but a reliance on imported ore limits China’s ability to use the strategic metal as leverage
China is accelerating efforts to secure its copper supply chain, designating the metal as critical across strategic industries such as electric vehicles, artificial intelligence and defence amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Provincial governments are leading the charge. On Monday, Jiangxi – already a hub for heavy rare earth mines – pledged in its 15th five-year plan to develop a world-leading hub for advanced copper-based new materials.
The push underscores copper’s evolution into a “strategic metal”, driven by electrification demands and global supply shortages, said Allan von Mehren, chief China economist at Danske Bank.
However, analysts say copper is unlikely to become a geopolitical lever for Beijing akin to rare earths, given China’s reliance on imported raw materials.
“China’s push to develop its copper industry is primarily driven by economic security and supply-chain-resilience considerations, rather than by a narrow export-led strategy,” said Alberto Vettoretti, managing partner at consultancy Dezan Shira & Associates.
Policy priorities focus on ... upgrading the domestic copper value chain, including the development of high-end copper materials
Chile is currently the largest copper producer in the world, China is the world’s top importer and consumer of copper, and Goldman Sachs analysts expect China to account for roughly half of copper demand growth by 2030.
China remains “structurally dependent” on imports, and that reliance is expected to stay between 50 and 70 per cent by 2035 because of limited domestic resources, according to Vettoretti.