Runaway gold: why even Wall Street can’t keep up with the metal’s record ascent
Some Chinese funds halt subscriptions as uncertainty fuels volatility in the metals market, while Hong Kong’s first gold exchange-traded fund surges on its debut
Gold’s blistering rally to start 2026 – surging past US$5,500 an ounce – has already eclipsed many full-year price targets, forcing analysts to upgrade their outlooks. And for some, the US$6,000 threshold is now in view.
The buying spree has prompted some Chinese funds to suspend new purchases, with one warning investors of “the risk of trading at a premium in the secondary market”.
The precious metal’s current price still represents a historic gain of 28 per cent in the first four weeks of the year.
Amid the rally, Hong Kong’s first gold exchange-traded fund, the Hang Seng Gold ETF, surged more than 9 per cent on its trading debut on Thursday.
Investors are piling into gold amid mounting concerns over US dollar assets, fuelled by policy uncertainty under President Donald Trump and fears regarding the Federal Reserve’s independence. The speed of the advance has made late-2025 forecasts obsolete and left strategists scrambling to react.
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In a 2026 market outlook report that JP Morgan released in December, the bank’s analysts predicted the precious metal’s price would reach US$5,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of this year, with a full-year price average of US$4,753.