As China, India spar over Dalai Lama’s succession plan, is recent thaw at risk?

Tibet is a red line that cannot be crossed, one observer warns, while another says ‘young and weak’ thaw will survive reincarnation dispute

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Children take part in a Tibetan circle dance around a portrait of the Dalai Lama on his 90th birthday, in McLeod Ganj near Dharamsala, India, on Sunday. India has hosted the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan government-in-exile in Dharamsala since 1959. Photo: AFP

Published: 6:00pm, 13 Jul 2025

The fallout between China and India over the 14th Dalai Lama’s succession plan has put a strain on their improving relations, but observers say the dispute is unlikely to completely jeopardise the thaw between the neighbours.

The dispute was triggered last week by comments from a senior Indian minister, Kiren Rijiju, who said only the Dalai Lama himself and the institution he established had the authority to identify his successor as the spiritual leader of Tibetan Buddhism.

Then on Sunday, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi extended 90th birthday greetings to the Dalai Lama, who lives in exile in India.

The remarks drew criticism from China twice within a week, with Beijing asserting that the Dalai Lama’s succession must adhere to tradition and Chinese law.

Senior Indian minister Kiren Rijiju attends the 90th birthday celebrations for the Dalai Lama at the Tsuglagkhang Tibetan temple complex near Dharamsala, India, on Sunday. Photo: EPA

Beijing had lodged a formal protest and urged India to stop interfering in China’s domestic affairs, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on July 4, a day after Rijiju’s comments. On Monday, it described the 14th Dalai Lama as a “political exile who has long engaged in anti-China separatist activities … under the cloak of religion”.

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As China, India spar over Dalai Lama’s succession plan, is recent thaw at risk?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Tibet is a red line that cannot be crossed, one observer warns, while another says ‘young and weak’ thaw will survive reincarnation dispute

Tibet is a red line that cannot be crossed, one observer warns, while another says ‘young and weak’ thaw will survive reincarnation dispute