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Alyssa Chen

The escalating tensions between China and Japan have highlighted what some observers see as a deeper problem – the lack of stable communication channels.
The row started earlier this month when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a conflict in the Taiwan Strait might be a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan that would justify a military deployment.
Beijing’s retaliation came swiftly, including warnings against travel to Japan and blocks on seafood imports and film releases.
Tokyo has repeatedly said it was open to talks, but these efforts have been met with a cold shoulder from Beijing.
The spat has also had an impact on the two countries’ relations with South Korea. Beijing has already postponed a three-way meeting between their culture ministers.
China also refused a proposal from Japan for a summit involving the three countries in January, according to Kyodo News.
Asked about the report, Mao Ning, a spokeswoman for China’s foreign ministry, said the trio had not reached an agreement on the scheduling of the meeting and Takaichi had “undermined the foundation and atmosphere for trilateral cooperation”.
Analysts said the rapid escalation happened because Takaichi’s government lacked people with strong ties to the Communist Party of China.
When Takaichi was appointed as prime minister, the junior coalition partner, Komeito, which positions itself as a party of peace and acts as a bridge between the two nations, left the government.
The party, supported by Soka Gakkai, Japan’s largest lay Buddhist organisation, is widely regarded as playing a significant behind-the-scenes role in facilitating the normalisation of diplomatic ties between Beijing and Tokyo.
The party was seen as an internal check on the hardline foreign policies of Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Japan’s main governing party.
During occasional flare-ups, it was able to facilitate dialogue with Beijing, helping to prevent significant misunderstandings, according to Lian Degui, director of the Centre for Japanese Studies at Shanghai International Studies University.
“Furthermore, the LDP and Takaichi cabinet no longer have influential figures like they once did to manage communication, and when issues arise, there is no one capable of having effective dialogue with China, making the situation all the more difficult,” Lian said.
Senior figures in the LDP, such as Toshihiro Nikai, who retired last year and has deep connections to China, and Hiroshi Moriyama, the party’s former secretary general, have been leaders of the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians’ Union, which plays a major role in exchanges with Beijing.
While serving as the LDP’s secretary general, Moriyama visited Beijing in January, meeting Chinese Premier Li Qiang and delivering a personal letter from then prime minister Shigeru Ishiba.
Currently, Moriyama holds no significant roles within the party or the government.
“For now, Tokyo lacks high-level political channels for its communication with China to quell the row,” said Zhang Yun, a professor specialising in northeast Asian affairs at Nanjing University.
“Lawmaker diplomacy ultimately requires a key figure to take the lead,” Zhang added, citing influential figures such as Hiromu Nonaka, a major LDP power broker in the 1990s, as well as Nikai and Moriyama.
“But now, the Japanese political sphere lacks successor lawmakers to promote Japan-China ties.”
Ryo Sahashi, a professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo, said the LDP as a whole lacked the momentum to engage actively in parliamentary diplomacy with China.
“However, this is also a challenge for China; it will be necessary to cultivate LDP members, and more broadly, Japanese politicians, who can maintain channels to China,” Sahashi said.
Channels involving Komeito and the Soka Gakkai were unlikely to function effectively due to the antagonistic relationship with the Takaichi administration, he added.
But Sahashi said Komeito could “again serve as some form of messenger”, citing its former leader Yoshikatsu Takeiri’s talks with Chinese premier Zhou Enlai ahead of the establishment of diplomatic relations with Beijing in the early 1970s.
Some analysts have said Yoshimasa Hayashi, the minister of internal affairs and communications and a former leader of the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians’ Union, could play such a role.
But Toru Horiuchi, from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said that while Hayashi might have some connections with the Communist Party of China, his current role was focused on domestic politics.
“China might use its close relations with Komeito [the former coalition partner] to pressure the LDP or to promote dialogue with it, depending on its calculation of its interests,” he said.


Observers said Takaichi was unlikely to retract her remarks, a major demand from Beijing, not only because of her high approval rates – which are currently around 70 per cent – but also her reliance on the LDP’s pro-Taiwan faction, which is associated with the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe.
Kim Baek-ju, a senior researcher specialising in Japanese affairs at Sogang University in Seoul, said the LDP had once been balanced between pro-Beijing and pro-Taipei factions, but the latter had come to dominate since Abe’s return to power in 2012.
“The political forces Prime Minister Takaichi relies on are precisely those centred on the former Abe faction, and her coalition partner [the Japan Innovation Party] also leans towards a pro-Taiwan stance. In this sense, it seems very difficult for Takaichi to retract the statement,” Kim said.
Horiuchi said tensions between China and the United States appeared to be easing and this, “combined with the balance of power that may favour China vis-a-vis Japan, may make China feel that it can afford to have tensions with Japan for now”.
Zhang said the next few months would be key to whether tensions between Japan and China would ease.
Kim added that the trajectory of Japan-China relations could be influenced by uncertain factors, such as the success or failure of Takaichi’s economic policies or an early election.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Japan, in common with most countries, does not recognise self-governed Taiwan as an independent state.


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China-Japan relations

How latest China-Japan row highlights lack of communication channels

Tensions with Beijing have risen after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a conflict in the Taiwan Strait may prompt military intervention by Japan. Photo: Reuters

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Experts and Chinese on the ground in Japan say China-Japan tension has not reached the heights of 2012 when the two countries were in a row over the Diaoyu Islands. Photo: AP

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Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi says there has been no change to Tokyo’s relationship with Beijing or its position on the Taiwan issue but observers in mainland China say her comments reflect Japan’s years-long rightward shift. Photo: AP 

Japan’s Takaichi says she wants better Beijing ties but refuses to retract Taiwan comments

Sanae Takaichi speaks to reporters on Friday. Photo: Kyodo

Takaichi and Xi Jinping pictured at their recent meeting in South Korea. Photo: Xinhua

News

China

Diplomacy

Beijing is reported to have rejected Tokyo’s proposal for a three-way summit with South Korea amid ongoing spat over PM’s comments on Taiwan


Beijing is reported to have rejected Tokyo’s proposal for a three-way summit with South Korea amid ongoing spat over PM’s comments on Taiwan.


Japan

Taiwan

Sanae Takaichi

How latest China-Japan row highlights lack of communication channels

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Beijing is reported to have rejected Tokyo’s proposal for a three-way summit with South Korea amid ongoing spat over PM’s comments on Taiwan

Beijing is reported to have rejected Tokyo’s proposal for a three-way summit with South Korea amid ongoing spat over PM’s comments on Taiwan