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NEWSCMP China Series

Navigating the South China Sea dispute, 10 years after Hague ruling

A decade after The Hague’s arbitration ruling, rival nations continue to manoeuvre for control in the South China Sea. This series explores the region’s evolving geopolitical landscape, unpacking the deepening alliances challenging Beijing and the strategic moves China is prepared to make in response.

Updated: 15 Jul, 2026

A Chinese coastguard vessel patrols near Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed South China Sea. Photo: Xinhua

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[1]

Beijing slams US-led coalition for marking 10 years since South China Sea ruling

US-led moves ‘primary threat’ to peace, China says in fiery statement asserting ‘historic rights’ to contested waters.

12 Jul, 2026

Rival claimant the Philippines has adopted a policy of publicising confrontations and highlighting China’s use of water cannons. Photo: AP

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[2]

Open Questions | Wu Shicun on why Beijing will not rule out Scarborough Shoal construction

Leading Chinese expert says more fixed facilities could be built in the South China Sea if ‘external forces leave us no choice’.

13 Jul, 2026

Illustration: Victor Sanjinez

[3]

Japan’s ‘destructive potential’ in South China Sea may eclipse the US: analyst

Japan’s recent firing of an anti-ship missile was first time it had shown its ‘military muscle’ since World War II, security round table told.

13 Jul, 2026

Japanese troops take part in Balikatan, the annual joint military exercises between the United States and the Philippines. Photo: Reuters

[4]

Is China’s island-building push at Antelope Reef nearing the finish line?

Satellite images suggest construction at the South China Sea atoll, now Beijing’s biggest outpost in the Paracels, is entering a new phase.

13 Jul, 2026

New satellite images show China has built a long, reinforced quay on Antelope Reef’s lagoon. Photo: EU

[5]

Will Manila and Hanoi’s maritime deal challenge Beijing in the South China Sea?

A new cooperation agreement chips away at China’s bilateral negotiation tactic, but experts say its value is mostly symbolic.

14 Jul, 2026

Illustration: Henry Wong

[6]

Beijing’s plan to solve South China Sea disputes, 10 years after Hague ruling

China should keep engaging in good-faith diplomacy and use International Organisation for Mediation to help ease tensions, analysts say.

14 Jul, 2026

A China Coast Guard ship sails near Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on June 18. Photo: Kyodo

[7]

How Beijing’s islands of control are reshaping the South China Sea

Ten years after the Hague’s tribunal ruling, Beijing’s island-building strategy has effectively eclipsed the 2016 decision, observers say.

15 Jul, 2026

Illustration: Henry Wong