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China-Japan relations
ChinaMilitary

What US-Japan military exercises can tell us about their plans for a Taiwan conflict

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s recent remarks started a major row with Beijing and shone a fresh spotlight on Japan’s strategic thinking

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US Typhon missile launchers were stationed in Japan as part of this year’s Exercise Resolute Dragon. Photo: Reuters
Liu Zhen
Japan’s recent deployment of missiles on Yonaguni, an island only 110km (70 miles) away from Taiwan, comes amid rising tensions with Beijing.

It also follows a steady build-up of supplies and equipment in the region by Japan’s main ally, the United States, in the past three months.

Yonaguni is the westernmost island in the Ryukyu chain, which would be a key strategic location in the event of a conflict over Taiwan.

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The Japanese military has already spent years planning operations based on this precise scenario and although specific details have never been officially disclosed, past joint US-Japan exercises can help shed some light on their likely operational plan.

Earlier this month, Sanae Takaichi became the first Japanese prime minister to explicitly state that any use of force by mainland China against Taiwan could be a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, hinting that the country’s military could intervene.
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Her comments triggered the ongoing diplomatic row with Beijing, which regards the remarks as interference in its internal affairs and has demanded she retract them.

However, reports that the Japanese and US military were drafting a joint operational plan for a crisis in the Taiwan Strait first emerged in 2021, with media reports saying this would include the establishment of temporary offensive bases in the Ryukyu chain.

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