Hong Kong to raise annual GDP forecast after robust growth in first half of 2026

Hong Kong will raise its full-year economic growth forecast after a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of 2026, the finance chief has said, with experts predicting gross domestic product (GDP) could easily hit 4 per cent. Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po also said on Sunday that the city would step up efforts to promote the global use of the renminbi after the debut of offshore Chinese government bond futures on the local stock exchange. In his weekly blog, Chan said the Census and Statistics Department was raising its GDP forecast later this month in light of the economy’s expansion by 5.1 per cent year on year in the first half of 2026. The economy is currently projected to grow by 2.5 to 3.5 per cent year on year in 2026. Chan added that the city’s goods exports would continue to benefit from strong global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) products in the second half of the year. Sustained overseas demand for Hong Kong’s financial and business services and a rise in tourist arrivals would also drive growth in services exports, supporting local consumption and investment sentiment, he said. But the finance chief cautioned that geopolitical developments, US dollar interest rates and other uncertainties could still affect the city’s economic outlook. “We will remain highly vigilant and work hard to grow the economy while safeguarding economic and financial security,” Chan said. Ryan Lam Chun-wang, the head of research for Hong Kong at Shanghai Commercial Bank, estimated the economy could grow by between 3.5 and 4 per cent. He said it made sense to raise the forecast given strong exports driven by AI products and the positive performance in the first half of this year. Lam also predicted the economy would grow by 2 to 3 per cent in the second half. Billy Mak Sui-choi, an associate professor at Baptist University’s accountancy, economics and finance department, forecast full-year GDP growth of about 3.7 per cent, given the United States had waived some sanctions. “Many companies or individuals from Europe and the US previously did not dare to invest in Hong Kong’s assets and stock markets due to potential risks. But some restrictions [from the US] are now cancelled, which is a positive sign,” he said. The economist added that more American capital could return to the city due to the relatively low valuation of Hong Kong stocks. Hong Kong’s GDP rose by 4.3 per cent year on year in the second quarter of this year, on the back of robust merchandise exports and resilient domestic demand, marking the 14th consecutive quarter of expansion. Chan attributed this performance to a 28.8 per cent year-on-year growth in goods exports in the second quarter, and noted that private consumption expenditure had risen by 2.9 per cent. The city’s buoyant financial market appeared to support the positive outlook. The finance chief said the benchmark Hang Seng Index had jumped about 3,000 points in July, its biggest monthly gain in nearly two years, and the average daily turnover remained above HK$300 billion (US$38.3 billion) for two straight months. Funds raised through Hong Kong initial public offerings in the first seven months of the year had already exceeded the full-year total for 2025 by over 13 per cent, while post-listing refinancing rose by more than 20 per cent year on year, he added. Chan said Hong Kong’s efforts to internationalise the renminbi would reach a milestone on Monday with the debut of an offshore Chinese government bond futures contract on Hong Kong’s stock exchange. The five-year contract would be the only product of its kind in the offshore market, allowing international investors to trade in renminbi offshore through their Hong Kong accounts and a familiar trading process, he said. Chan added that the launch completed a risk-management loop between the cash and futures markets, building on the Bond Connect and Swap Connect cross-border trading schemes. He said the new futures contract would provide a standardised, exchange-traded and liquid offshore hedging tool for treasury bonds, with the upgrade stemming from rising demand for northbound asset allocation. The finance chief cited the performance of the Bond Connect scheme, which accounts for about two-thirds of mainland bond trading by overseas investors. He noted that holdings under the scheme had grown to more than 3 trillion yuan by the end of June, compared with 800 billion yuan in 2017. The finance chief also touched on the broader offshore renminbi market, specifically the performance of dim sum bonds – debt instruments denominated in the currency and issued outside the mainland. Chan said the issuance of such bonds had exceeded 1 trillion yuan annually for the past two years, while the outstanding issuance had surpassed 1.6 trillion yuan. He said that Hong Kong was accelerating plans to become an international gold trading centre and develop a commodities trading ecosystem to support more renminbi-denominated products. “We will continue to play our roles as a bridge connecting the mainland and global markets, and push for the offshore renminbi market to develop in a smooth, stable, and deepening manner,” Chan said. The goal was to consolidate Hong Kong’s position as the world’s largest offshore renminbi hub, he added.

Hong Kong to raise annual GDP forecast after robust growth in first half of 2026

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Experts predict gross domestic product for the whole year could easily hit 4 per cent

Experts predict gross domestic product for the whole year could easily hit 4 per cent