Russian losses in Ukraine now exceed recruitment, Western officials claim
Battlefield casualties outpaced replenishment in January as the war enters its fifth year of full-scale conflict
Russia sustained around 9,000 more battlefield losses in Ukraine than it was able to replace last month, according to assessments from Western officials, signalling progress for Ukraine’s ambition to inflict heavier damage on the front line.
Russian forces were unable to achieve significant gains on the ground in January even as they sustained heavy losses, according to officials who spoke on condition of anonymity. The assessment, which could not be independently verified, could bolster Kyiv’s aim to drive up the cost for Moscow.
The number of Russian soldiers killed in action jumped to as high as 35,000 in December, Bloomberg reported last month, a figure that was roughly double the monthly average calculated by Nato in 2025.
The Defence Ministry in Moscow did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has outlined a strategy of trying to increase Russian losses to 50,000 a month by the summer, an outcome that Kyiv views as making it difficult for Russian President Vladimir Putin to replace troops without some form of mobilisation.
In December, Russian losses were about equal to Moscow’s monthly recruitment, the officials said. The deficit faced by Moscow in January suggests Ukraine’s strategy appeared to be having some success, the Western officials said, although it remains to be seen whether Kyiv is able to maintain the recent dynamics.
