How Putin’s focus on Ukraine war leaves allies Venezuela, Iran and Cuba exposed

As Russian President Vladimir Putin focuses his attentions on Moscow’s war in Ukraine, his strategic allies around the world have been left feeling neglected – or worse. In Venezuela, officials now think their years-long security relationship with Moscow was a paper tiger. They’re not alone: From Damascus and Tehran to Havana, over the last 13 months authoritarian regimes which previously benefited from their close ties to the Kremlin have found Russian support lacking when it mattered most. Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow after Russian military backing withered away. Cuba, lacking a benefactor, is confronting a humanitarian crisis some think could see it become the next domino to fall. Iran was bombed by the US last year and now Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei faces domestic protests on an existential scale, along with the threat of more US military action. The most potent symbol of Russia’s inattention may be that of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro languishing in a New York jail. As the remnants of the state security apparatus conduct a postmortem on how their leader was captured by the US, officials there privately expressed dismay at the failure of their Cuban and Russian partners to help protect him, according to people familiar with the matter. Despite repeated public signals from US President Donald Trump that he intended to remove Maduro, officials in Caracas complain that the Cuban and Russian intelligence agencies on which they relied for much of their security failed to identify vulnerabilities or any specific information about the threat to the Venezuelan leader. Much of his personal security was in the hands of Cuban intelligence officials who acted as his personal protection team, a factor illustrated by the Cuban government announcing the deaths of 32 of its nationals during the US operation. There is no trust left between Venezuela and its Cuban security counterparts, the officials said. They also cite the failings of Russian S-300 and Buk-M2 air defence systems in protecting Venezuela’s airspace. Russia did not give adequate technical support to ensure the systems were operationally effective, the officials have complained. Venezuela’s cyber defences were reliant on technical support from Russia, they said, which again was found wanting as US cyberattacks appeared to cut off power to large areas of Caracas. The consequence is a breakdown in trust in the security partnership between Venezuela, Cuba and Russia. In Caracas, Maduro’s successor Delcy Rodriguez now has little option but to accept American offers of cooperation and to loosen ties with her country’s old partners. Putin has not yet publicly commented on the US actions in Venezuela, with the Russian Foreign Ministry issuing a fairly formal statement highlighting that such actions violate key principles of international law. However, Russian officials were angered by Trump proceeding with the operation to capture Maduro, according to people familiar with the matter. Still, relations with the US are more important to Moscow now than Venezuela, a separate person familiar with the Kremlin’s position said, declining to be identified because the information is not public. Maduro’s capture is unpleasant for Russia, but not a catastrophe, the person said. Iran, by contrast, is a more serious issue, as Russian cooperation with the country is much stronger, including in the military field, they said. Russia may publicly support Iran, but is unlikely to become deeply involved in helping Tehran, given its limited capacity and the priority of ending the war with Ukraine, the person said. That bodes ill for Russia’s other strategic partnerships, and suggests that it’s all the more important to the Kremlin that it achieves all its aims in Ukraine without concessions at the negotiating table. That in turn may make it harder still for Trump to secure an elusive peace deal.

How Putin’s focus on Ukraine war leaves allies Venezuela, Iran and Cuba exposed

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Russia’s war in Ukraine leaves allies Venezuela, Iran and Cuba vulnerable, exposing security failures and eroding trust in Moscow’s global influence

Russia’s war in Ukraine leaves allies Venezuela, Iran and Cuba vulnerable, exposing security failures and eroding trust in Moscow’s global influence