Opinion | US war on Iran isn’t likely to go as planned
US war planners have overlooked viewing their adversary through realpolitik in the past. They now face a far more organised opponent
Take Millennium Challenge 2002, one of the largest pre-Iraq-invasion war game simulations. Here, the US faced an adversary in the Persian Gulf using asymmetric low-tech warfare. US battle formations constituted a naval fleet of 19 ships, including an aircraft carrier, similar to Trump’s armada, which consists of about 20 ships, including two aircraft carriers.
Documents released by the US National Security Agency found that within 10 minutes of starting the Millennium Challenge operation, Lieutenant General Paul Van Riper, commander of the “red team”, sank the US aircraft carrier and defeated the “blue team”, representing the US forces. However, the commanders paused the war game, “refloated” the sunken ships and resumed the exercises as if the red team’s victory hadn’t occurred. They changed the scenario by restricting the red team’s ability to conduct asymmetric warfare, forcing them to fight on America’s terms, which led to a predetermined US victory.
Van Riper’s strategy involved avoiding the interception of electronic and phone communications by using couriers to carry sensitive messages and lanterns to coordinate with aircraft, thus bypassing radio interception. Additional restrictions banned Van Riper from using chemical weapons against US assets.