Opinion | The US is going about its competition with China all wrong

As long as the US misreads the strategic landscape and assumes ideological superiority, policy recommendations made on this basis will miss the mark

Reductionist thinking that is a relic of the post-World War II era will only create a dangerous environment for American interests and the world

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Published: 9:30am, 13 Apr 2024Updated: 9:19am, 16 Apr 2024

Next week, US Congressman Mike Gallagher, chairman of the Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, will resign. From the committee’s first session early last year, his chairmanship has been characterised by one overarching philosophy: the US must win against China.

This idea was exemplified in his recent Foreign Affairs article with Matt Pottinger titled “No substitute for victory: America’s competition with China must be won, not managed” – but it is by no means a fresh perspective.

Putting aside the more philosophical question of whether America should try to “win” the competition with China, presupposing that the competition can result in a definitive victory is unsophisticated and archaic. The premise is based on a misreading of the strategic landscape and an overreliance on assuming ideological superiority, ensuring that any policy recommendations based on this notion continue to miss the mark.

If we were to rewind time by 10 or 20 years, perhaps these ideas would have more merit. But it is far too late now for the US to significantly slow China’s rise. The common analogy that likens China to the Soviet Union during the Cold War is misleading. The Soviet Union was solely a military competitor to the US while 21st century China is a competitor on every level: diplomatically, economically, militarily, politically and technologically.

Moreover, the idea, put forth in Gallagher’s piece, that the US can engage in “intensive diplomacy with Beijing only from a position of American strength, as perceived by both Washington and Beijing” is unrealistic. China no longer cares to, or has to, conduct bilateral diplomacy on these terms – if it doesn’t feel as if the US is willing to make concessions, it will simply cease communication, as was the case with military-to-military dialogue in 2022.

Political leaders’ beliefs in the effectiveness of their strategy to “win” the competition with China stem from a common but flawed assumption: that if the US can create the right economic and social environment, Chinese citizens will demand democracy from their leaders.

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