A ceasefire has brought a reprieve to the war between Israel and Iran, halting the single most dangerous regional conflict in recent years. For Beijing, the world’s largest oil importer, the lesson from the brief, 12-day conflict, could not be clearer: China cannot continue to rely on a region so prone to disruption for the resources needed to power its economic development.
China has been successful at maintaining a balancing act between competing geopolitical forces, importing vast amounts of discounted crude from Iran while securing long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) deals with Gulf suppliers. It has also cultivated diplomatic neutrality and maintained a strong relationship with Israel. This neutrality has allowed Beijing to support energy needs without hindering geopolitical ambitions.
The fragility of this strategy has been seen in the most recent round of conflict, which jeopardised shipping routes, disrupted supply chains and led to a global spike in energy costs. Lessons learned will not be limited to the Middle East. These will resonate across Beijing’s global foreign policy apparatus.
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Beijing’s reliance on Iranian oil was at its peak in 2024, when it bought around 1.5 million barrels per day, which accounted for about 90 per cent of Iranian oil shipments and 15 per cent of Chinese crude consumption. Chinese consumption of Iranian oil has since dropped to 740,000 barrels per day. Whether the ceasefire holds is immaterial at this point. Diversification is a strategic imperative.
Beijing will continue to look towards LNG, the country’s most viable hedge in the immediate term. Even this, however, comes from the yet-to-be-stabilised Middle East. Just before the recent war erupted, ENN LNG Singapore – a subsidiary of China’s ENN Natural Gas – signed a long-term agreement with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. As the war has shown, while such arrangements are stabilising, they are far from immune to sudden disruption.
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The primary solution that might offer long-term energy security for Beijing is renewables. In 2024, non-fossil fuels made up 56 per cent of total installed electricity generation capacity. By the end of 2024, China’s cumulative renewable energy capacity reached nearly 1.9 billion kilowatts, a 25 per cent year-on-year increase. China’s electric vehicle (EV) market grew at the equally astounding rate of almost 40 per cent in 2024.
Rooftop solar panels help bring affordable energy to Chinese villagers
Rooftop solar panels help bring affordable energy to Chinese villagers
