I recently travelled to Washington and New York, where I held in-depth discussions with a range of people from the strategic, academic and business communities on China-US relations. These conversations gave me a more nuanced understanding of both the current dynamics and the potential trajectory of bilateral ties in the next phase.
A key takeaway is that while there is consensus within the Trump administration that the US is engaged in a strategic competition with China, its approach is highly personalised and transactional, without a long-term strategy. Different factions and voices within the US government are actively competing to shape the president’s perceptions of China, resulting in a policymaking process marked by uncertainty.
To many, the most pressing issue is the future of the economic relationship, especially how the tariff war might shape broader dynamics. Once seen as the ballast of the relationship, trade and economics have now become one of its most destabilising elements. US President Donald Trump regards tariffs as a long-term strategic tool.
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Still, Trump’s tariff strategy cannot escape the constraints of domestic economic and political realities. US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has warned that Trump’s policies could push up inflation risks. Once the inflationary impact of the tariffs begins to bite and voter dissatisfaction rises, Trump may be forced to adjust his trade stance.
Meanwhile, China is playing a relatively proactive role in the ongoing talks. To some, China has figured out the key to dealing with Trump: rather than trying to interpret his inconsistent policies, it is more effective to analyse his behavioural patterns and political motives. The US wavers across multiple issues, from tariffs and fentanyl to export controls and tech restrictions. This multi-issue bundling offers Trump greater room to declare victory but also makes it harder for the two sides to forge a substantive agreement.
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Unravelling China’s role in the US fentanyl crisis
Unravelling China’s role in the US fentanyl crisis
I was also struck by the intense attention the fentanyl issue is receiving in Washington. The suffering fentanyl has caused in the US is understandable, but emotion alone will not resolve it. US insistence that China should not link progress on fentanyl control with reductions in tariffs is puzzling from Beijing’s perspective as it was the Trump administration that first linked fentanyl cooperation to tariffs.
