Opinion | The Busan silence: how great-power pragmatism is rewriting Taiwan’s future
With time on Beijing’s side for reunification and the US more focused on deals, a quiet understanding on Taiwan could harden into routine
It revealed how both leaders prefer to manage rivalry through quiet understanding rather than confrontation. The approach reduces the risk of war but narrows Taiwan’s options. The question is whether that silence can hold, and what it will cost.
Trump treats alliances as business. In 2024 he framed Taiwan as an insurance policyholder that hadn’t been paying premiums. To him, protection is conditional; commitment depends on contribution. He has pressed Taipei to raise defence spending far beyond the current 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product. For Beijing, this creates an opening. Xi sees time, not tanks, as his advantage.
According to US intelligence, Xi has told the People’s Liberation Army to be ready for a Taiwan contingency by 2027 – readiness, not intent. Beijing’s headwinds – an ageing workforce, a fragile property sector and reliance on imported energy – make conflict costly. Patience promises better returns.
Trump seeks quick deals; Xi plays for time. Yet both want stability that keeps markets steady and their authority intact. What once relied on military deterrence now runs on mutual calculation.