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China economy
Opinion
SCMP Editorial

Editorial | As China drafts another five-year plan, it must brace for challenges

Amid domestic and global headwinds, national development won’t be easy. Hong Kong can help serve Beijing’s development goals

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Commuters wait at a bus stop during evening rush hour at the central business district in Beijing on March 2. The Politburo has set a date for the party’s fourth plenum, during which its leaders will introduce the 15th five-year plan. Photo: Reuters
The Politburo has set the date for the fourth plenum, which will roll out China’s 15th five-year plan to meet its social and economic goals from 2026 to 2030. The Communist Party’s annual conclave will be held from October 20 to 23 in Beijing. The times have changed since China rolled out the 14th five-year plan, when it was fighting a trade war with the United States on one hand and the Covid-19 pandemic and economic contraction on the other.
But the country once again faces a crossroads, amid domestic economic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties, including rising tensions with the US. Although the two sides have apparently reached agreements on the future of TikTok and to prevent an escalated trade war, competition still looms across a broad front.

The Politburo meeting, chaired by President Xi Jinping, reviewed a draft of the 15th five-year plan, which must be approved by the plenum that will be attended by more than 370 members of the Communist Party’s Central Committee. Then it will go to the annual National People’s Congress meeting in March for final endorsement.

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China’s national development, a centrepiece of the plan, faces significant challenges. Progress can be hostage to issues like global economic uncertainties and supply chain disruptions. In that regard, consumer confidence and domestic spending are critical to sustainable economic expansion. Consumption accounted for 56.6 per cent of China’s gross domestic product in 2024 – 17 percentage points below the world average according to the World Bank. It is good that China has expanded social welfare programmes that can support consumption. There is room for fiscal spending to shift towards people’s livelihoods and growth in demand for services.

Amid geopolitical uncertainty, domestic economic stability is imperative. A case in point is supply chains. Beijing is expected to consolidate supply chain resilience while addressing choke points in hi-tech areas.

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The 15th five-year plan will significantly impact Hong Kong’s economic trajectory as it further integrates the city into the Greater Bay Area development zone. This will attract investments and foster collaboration in sectors like technology and finance.
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