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China trade
OpinionLetters

Letters | World must learn to live with China’s manufacturing prowess

Readers discuss China’s record trade surplus so far this year, Hong Kong’s ambitions to be a cryptocurrency hub, and how to effectively curb social media overuse

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Vehicles intended for export are lined up at Longtan Container Terminal of Nanjing Port in Nanjing, east China’s Jiangsu Province, on December 7. Photo: Xinhua
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In September, Bloomberg economists predicted that, even amid tariff wars and a new wave of protectionism, China would still post the largest trade surplus in history: US$1.2 trillion in a single year. Now, with January–November data already showing a record US$1.08 trillion surplus – a 5.9 per cent increase from the same period last year – that projection looks less like speculation and more like inevitability. If December’s surplus reaches at least US$100 billion, China will become the first country ever to cross the US$1.2 trillion mark, a figure roughly equivalent to 86 per cent of Indonesia’s 2024 gross domestic product.

Many observers see this as clear evidence of how resilient China’s industrial strategy remains despite external pressure. Even under tight export controls, retaliatory tariffs and ongoing Western efforts to “decouple”, China’s manufacturing engine has not slowed – it has accelerated. From electric vehicles to solar panels and from batteries to mid-tech components, China continues to benefit from scale, supply chain integration and logistical efficiency that few countries can match.

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But behind the headline numbers lies a new geometry in the global economy. A surplus of this size is not just a sign of “strength”; it also reflects deepening structural imbalances. While political rhetoric around the world emphasises reshoring, de-risking and strategic autonomy, dependence on Chinese goods is quietly increasing. Government speeches may point towards building self-reliance, yet markets from Europe to Southeast Asia remain stocked with products made in the provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu or Sichuan.

Such an enormous surplus inevitably brings tensions. The European Union has launched anti-subsidy investigations. The United States keeps widening its tariff net. In Southeast Asia, local industries are struggling against a flood of low-cost Chinese imports. If these trends continue, global protectionist pushback in the coming years could be more intense than what we see today.
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Ultimately, China’s trade surplus is more than an extraordinary number. It represents a global paradox: countries want greater independence from China, yet their markets keep relying on Chinese production. They seek economic stability, yet their own policies often lean defensive.

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