Macroscope | Has India really become Trump’s top target in Asia?

If there was one thing analysts could agree on in the run-up to last year’s US presidential election, it was that the next occupant of the White House would be a China hawk. A hardline stance towards the world’s second-largest economy had been firmly bipartisan for years, while the big China problems confronting America’s next president called for a tough approach.

On trade, the only question was whether tariffs on Chinese goods would be more punitive and broad-based. There was also intense speculation about what the new administration would do if other countries – particularly in Southeast Asia – became even bigger re-routing hubs for Chinese exports.

When it came to technology, it was almost a given that the next president would maintain export controls on advanced semiconductors to preserve the US economic and military edge in artificial intelligence (AI). In foreign affairs, support for the security of Taiwan – which produces over 90 per cent of the world’s most sophisticated chips – in the face of the People’s Liberation Army’s intensified posture around the island also seemed a near-certainty.

The wild card, however, was the transactional approach to policymaking often favoured by Donald Trump during his first term as president. Following his re-election, Trump appeared to be a China hawk, appointing staunch critics of Beijing to top roles and raising tariffs on Chinese goods to prohibitively high levels.

Yet Trump’s capriciousness, his well-known admiration for Chinese President Xi Jinping and his administration’s belated recognition of the strength of Beijing’s retaliatory weapons – particularly new curbs on exports of rare earths and magnets – have contributed to a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape since April.

With China likely to secure another 90-day extension to the current tariff reprieve amid signs a trade deal between the two countries is taking shape, India has suddenly become Trump’s bête noire. Having initially turned a blind eye to its close relations with Russia, Trump is now using India’s purchases of cheaper Russian oil as the pretext for imposing one of the highest tariff rates on a major economy.