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Opinion | Has US-China rivalry killed globalisation? Hardly
Globalisation has levelled the military and economic playing field. Middle powers don’t necessarily have to choose between the US and China
This article explores a more optimistic scenario where globalisation persists in a multipolar world. The relative weakness of the US and China, combined with the growing weight of “middle powers”, is driving nations towards cooperation rather than fracture along great-power fault lines. It is within this environment that a new multilateral framework could emerge: a Coalition for Non-Aligned Nations (Conan).
The Cold War developed on a profoundly unbalanced world stage. The US dominated global manufacturing in the years after World War II and controlled two-thirds of global gold reserves. For its part, the Soviet Union fielded the world’s largest standing army and shared with Washington the world’s only nuclear and intercontinental strike capabilities.
In that environment, most countries had little choice but to align with one power or the other. Now, more nations are taking the opportunity to build their own capacities. Income disparities between nations have declined markedly, with the between-country Gini coefficient falling from roughly 60 in 1980 to 47 in 2022.
Military power has diffused, with nine nations now holding nuclear weapons and the permanent members of the UN Security Council now accounting for less than 50 per cent of global material capability, down from 75 per cent after World War II. In 1960, exports accounted for only 12 per cent of global GDP. Today, exports account for 29 per cent.