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Opinion | Pax Sinica vs Pax Silica: how China-US mineral war is taking shape
The US approach of deploying capital and diplomatic leverage must make up for China’s years-long head start in building its reserves
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If 2026 were a chess match, critical minerals would be the opening gambit, and both China and the United States are going all out. On January 28, China’s Zijin Mining announced a US$4 billion takeover of Allied Gold’s three African mines. On February 3, Swiss mining giant Glencore entered talks to sell a 40 per cent stake in its Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) copper and cobalt operations to the US-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium.
Between the two announcements, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted 54 countries in Washington on February 4 for the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial, unveiling US$30 billion in financing and launching the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (Forge), a new preferential trade bloc. The moves complement Washington’s Pax Silica initiative, the State Department’s flagship effort to secure AI-era supply chains among nine allied partners.
US efforts to outbid China for Africa’s minerals are a taste of what is to come this year. A pause last October in the US-China trade war saw tariffs on Beijing drop to 47 per cent, but this is a temporary truce during which both superpowers have been anything but idle. China’s one-year suspension of rare earth export controls has provided breathing room for both sides, with corporations and governments using this window to aggressively expand mineral access.
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The year ahead will be marked by strategic repositioning rather than genuine peace. The accelerating competition for critical minerals – the foundation of the US’ Pax Silica and the driver of Beijing’s pursuit of resource self-sufficiency – is likely to dominate 2026’s geopolitical landscape.
Europe’s unprecedented stockpiling initiative underscores the urgency. The RESourceEU Action Plan, which launched in December, marks the first EU-coordinated stockpiling effort. The plan targets rare earth permanent magnets, battery materials and minerals where China maintains dominance.
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The US and China are pursuing different approaches to mineral security, with Washington seeking to exclude China from its ecosystem through coalitions and Beijing aiming for self-sufficiency. Washington’s Pax Silica framework bets that alliance-building can offset China’s head start in mine ownership.
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