OpinionGiven history of ceasefires, it’s no surprise US-Iran truce is fraying

From Ukraine to Gaza and the Middle East, the lesson of history is that ceasefires rarely hold

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US Vice-President J.D. Vance arrives for talks about Iran with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11. Photo: AP

Published: 8:30pm, 15 Apr 2026Updated: 7:00am, 16 Apr 2026

The fraying of the ceasefire in the US-Israel war against Iran reflects grim patterns of history. Truces are often doomed because they focus on stopping battle-related violence and rarely begin to address the underlying struggles that ignited hostilities. A pause without a shared common endgame often resets the battlefield as reasons harden for prolonging warfare. Viable political solutions seldom follow and take hold for peace to endure.

Over the past decade, we’ve seen the perils. The Minsk agreements (2014, 2015) failed to resolve the Russia-Ukraine war. The Gaza truces aimed to stop attacks as captives were exchanged. Israel sought the dismantling of Hamas and return of all hostages; Hamas demanded a permanent ceasefire, full Israeli withdrawal and survival. Middle ground was impossible. In the war against Iran, Israel continued bombing Lebanon, claiming the truce didn’t apply there.

The drivers of war are restless and incessant. Both sides must believe cessation best serves their self-interests. That view must be shared widely within. Combatants’ power usually remains roughly symmetrical, and trust is barely tenable. Psychology comes into play; delusion takes hold.

Ideology is crucial too; while it may build social cohesion and structure decision-making, it fosters blindness and dogmatism. Flaws in rushed agreements are additional landmines. Vague terms are opportunities to exploit. Insufficient foresight for unexpected events and intermediaries’ misunderstandings are also problems. The scope may be too narrow or broad.

Data from the Ceasefire Project tracked 2,202 declared ceasefires between 1989 and 2020. Roughly half either held or remained in force at the study’s close, while about a third collapsed. The remainder never took effect or could not be evaluated due to insufficient data. Just over 30 per cent met their immediate objectives or were superseded by new agreements – but none delivered a durable peace.

The Middle East’s record is weaker than elsewhere: of 360 truces with known outcomes, more than half failed. Conflicts often don’t end as much as decline to lower levels of violence over time, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}From Ukraine to Gaza and the Middle East, the lesson of history is that ceasefires rarely hold

From Ukraine to Gaza and the Middle East, the lesson of history is that ceasefires rarely hold