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Opinion
Many countries are ‘quiet quitting’ the US and China on trade
While the US and Chinese markets are essential, other countries are making deals with each other in search of more diversified trade
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As US President Donald Trump rebuilds the tariff wall the country’s Supreme Court knocked down, the headlines fixate on each individual block. With the global 10 per cent tariff initially levied in response expiring on July 24, the Trump administration is preparing to replace it by imposing Section 301 tariffs on 60 economies for not doing enough to keep forced labour out of their supply chains.
The next tariff announcement will target 16 economies over alleged “structural excess capacity” leading to persistent trade surpluses. Meanwhile, multiple national security-based Section 232 tariffs loom, layered on those already levied on steel, aluminium and other items.
The targets are not adversaries. Several have long-standing free-trade agreements with the United States. In other cases, they are countries that did what the Trump administration asked. The likes of Indonesia and Malaysia reached Agreements on Reciprocal Trade, where countries offered one-way concessions to the US in exchange for supposed increased tariff certainty.
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In almost all cases, they are countries also struggling with Chinese overcapacity, in addition to the economic hit from the US-Israel war against Iran. Many are also military allies or partners of the US. Their reward for engagement is continued investigations and threats, with tariff rates ranging from 10-12.5 per cent and more to come.
What to do? In the corporate world, “quiet quitting” describes workers who stop going above and beyond once they realise extra effort doesn’t get rewarded. They do the bare minimum to keep their job but find alternative paths to satisfaction.
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The same logic plays out in global trade, with the response already taking place. It is not protests or retaliatory tariffs but a quiet architectural shift: new agreements, rules of origin and supply chain anchors, all designed with the goal of creating a world where neither the US nor China dominates.
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