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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
Japan’s Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party Sanae Takaichi speaks during an election campaign event in Tokyo on February 7. Photo: Reuters
Japan

Macroscope | Why the IMF is right to press Japan on its fiscal risks

The fiscal and monetary policies of advanced economies have global repercussions, and Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal agenda risks market pushback.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | US dollar weakness is no game changer for a globalised yuan

Banking & finance

Macroscope | How robust domestic financial markets could ease era of AI uncertainty

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan will soon learn how far Takaichi can ride her luck

While Japan is unlikely to have its own Liz Truss moment, high debt levels and an empowered populist in charge are still reasons for concern.

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Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s prime minister and president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, puts in pins marking the names of candidates who won lower house elections, at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo, on February 8. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Trump-Takaichi meddling in finance spells more turbulence ahead

The two leaders’ moves into economics despite their lack of knowledge threaten to further destabilise global finance and inflate debt levels.

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Commodities

Macroscope | Blame Trump, not Asian investors, for gold and silver volatility

The global uncertainty stemming from Trump’s behaviour is roiling precious metals markets far more than any investment from Asia.

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Japan

Macroscope | Could Japan stop being the ballast of the bond market?

A lower house election victory would give flight to Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal expansionism – and introduce upheaval far beyond Japan.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, seen on a screen outside a brokerage in Tokyo on January 21, touched its highest in a century this month. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | Distracted at Davos, leaders are ignoring one critical issue

More attention needs to be paid to the state of US and global finances.

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United States

Macroscope | Multilateral institutions’ critique of Trump’s actions is too muted

US funding of multinational bodies seems to be keeping their critique muted. The power of the purse should not ensure immunity from criticism.

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United States

Macroscope | Investors are giving Trump a free pass

Markets, especially bond markets, are meant to be a disciplining force. Their inaction will only embolden Trump to act more recklessly.

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A video of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell plays on a screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on January 12. Powell has rejected the Trump administration’s claims of wrongdoing against him, calling them a pretext for punishing him for not cutting interest rates as fast as US President Donald Trump desired. Photo: AP
Stocks

Macroscope | Why Asian family businesses are pivoting to private equity

Family firms, the backbone of the Asian economy, have tended to be reluctant to go public but are increasingly open to private equity funding.

A man walks past an electronic board displaying the Nikkei 225 stock prices on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo on January 5. Photo: AFP
China stock market

Macroscope | Chinese stocks could be biggest winner of Venezuela fallout

Amid rising fears over an AI bubble and geopolitical strife, China’s push for self-reliance has left it more insulated from global storms.

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan’s economic security push heralds rising protectionism in Asia

The emphasis on securing supply chains and stockpiling critical resources is no substitute for free and open trade and investment.

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Artificial intelligence

Macroscope | Fears of an AI bubble in Asian stock markets are misplaced

The concentration risk so prevalent elsewhere is mitigated in Asia by a diverse equity landscape and the unique strengths in China.

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An employee debugs the AI-powered live-streaming machines at a Rexso workshop on December 8 in Huangshan in China’s Anhui province. Photo: VCG via Getty Images
India

Macroscope | India and Japan show impact of Trump’s tariffs extend beyond trade

While Japan is grappling with acute policy dilemmas and AI bubble fears stalk markets, India seems relatively resilient and forward-looking.

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Workers put switches and connectors on solar panels after they come out of automated framing at a ReNew solar panel manufacturing plant on the outskirts of Jaipur, India, on August 21, 2025. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Global stablecoin surge highlights overlooked risks in crypto finance

The politics around digital currencies have extended into the long-running battle for supremacy between the world’s major currencies.

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Bitcoin

Macroscope | Bitcoin’s bruising month shows the perils of going mainstream

Despite years of progress, the cryptocurrency is still in a vulnerable spot halfway between pure speculation and institutional adoption.

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Climate change

Macroscope | What China, not the free market, gets right about climate finance

China’s central and local governments and state entities are willing to issue or guarantee green bonds on a scale unmatched elsewhere.

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Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets China’s Vice-Premier Ding Xuexiang in Belem, Brazil on November 5, ahead of Cop30. Photo: AFP
South Korea

Macroscope | South Korea’s challenges a taste of what’s to come for global economy

While South Korea has been a big beneficiary of the AI boom, the surge is also highlighting its domestic and geopolitical vulnerabilities.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Does emerging markets’ stellar run this year have legs?

Emerging market equities have seen their longest winning streak since 2004, but it is premature to talk of a renaissance.

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Trade

Macroscope | Exports no longer enough to lift Asia out of ‘middle-income trap’

Developing nations are being urged to boost domestic demand and mutual trade to drive growth, but key factors like population ageing must also be addressed.

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Customers flock to buy vegetarian food during the Vegetarian Festival at a market in Chinatown in Bangkok on October 21. The International Monetary Fund has projected Thailand’s economic growth forecast for 2025 at 2 per cent and expects the gross domestic product to sharply slow to 1.6 per cent for 2026. Photo: EPA
United States

Macroscope | Has Trump 2.0 really been a boon to stock markets and the economy?

Although asset prices performed strongly this year and there has been no recession, Trump’s second term is a Rubicon-crossing moment for the US and global economy.

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A demonstrator holds up a sign reading “Tariffs are bad” outside the US Supreme Court in Washington on November 5. Photo: AFP
Trade

Macroscope | Asia’s trading powerhouses are more Trump-proof than many feared

High US tariffs not only did not cripple export-oriented economies like South Korea, thanks to the AI boom, but they also pushed policymakers to embark on reforms.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | 4 reasons fears of an AI-fuelled stock market bubble are overdone

While many believe the stock market is in an AI-induced bubble, there are factors that paint a more optimistic picture.

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China inflation

Macroscope | Forget inflation, deflation poses bigger risk to Asia’s economies

While Asia has not had inflation worries for some time, its economic future has become more closely tied to China’s, with all that entails.

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A girl selects snacks at a store in Mengzi, in southwest Yunnan province, on October 15. China’s consumer prices showed further signs of stabilisation in September as core inflation reached its highest level in 19 months. Photo: Xinhua
Commodities

Macroscope | Global uncertainty driving gold prices higher despite bubble fears

Even with stock markets surging, the price of gold is hitting new records as investors seek out stability.

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People walk past jewellery shops and gold dealers in Hatton Garden, London, Britain, on October 8. Photo: EPA
Central banks

Macroscope | Why the cost of buying economic growth is destined to rise

The apparent resilience of the global economy in the face of a series of shocks comes amid dangerously high debt levels.

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Japan

Macroscope | 4 reasons Japan’s yen safe haven trade is a distant memory

While the Japanese currency’s reputation as a safe haven was always overblown, the stability that supported it is now a thing of the past.

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