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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
A woman walks past anti-US graffiti painted on the wall of Tehran University in Iran, on April 25. The war has pushed up inflation and added to the financial burden of already highly indebted countries. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Why bond yields are going up everywhere

Unlike stock markets, bond markets are signalling a more cognisant and mature appreciation of the state of government finances.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Why commodities could be the next big thing in markets

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Can Europe and Asia break the grip of US bond markets?

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Bonds

Macroscope | Bond market sell-off raises stakes for Asia’s tech-driven economies

Stakes are high for Asia’s tech-driven economies amid a global sell-off in bond markets that signals investor fears.

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A currency trader talks on the phone near a screen showing the Korea Composite Stock Price Index and the foreign exchange rate between the US dollar and South Korean won at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul on May 20. Photo: AP
Stocks

Macroscope | Global stock markets are bubbling along on unjustified optimism

Hype around AI and some tech companies has inflated stock prices and left investors ebullient despite the rising risk of a market crash.

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2026 Xi-Trump summit

Macroscope | Trump-Xi summit puts US vulnerabilities on display

China weaponising rare earths turned the tables on Trump, showing how unprepared Western governments and firms were for a full trade war.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Mini-crises sparked by the Iran war may add up to a big collapse

From energy, inflation and trade to slowing global growth and investment uncertainty, these mini-crises have the makings of a massive crisis.

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The United Arab Emirates said on April 28 it would leave Opec and Opec+ on May 1. Photo: EPA
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | How the AI boom is helping Asia weather the Iran war energy shock

The war in Iran might as well be over for investors as positive sentiment, strong corporate earnings and the AI boom lift Asian markets.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | The real reason stock markets are still flying high despite grave risks

For all the talk of market resilience, too much portfolio investment is chasing too few real-world investment areas.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why fixing Japan’s monetary policy isn’t getting any easier

The wrong kind of inflation and the effects of the war in Iran complicate the outlook for Japanese interest rates.

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Customers queue at a discount ticket shop at Akihabara Electric Town in Tokyo on March 24. The weak yen is fuelling inflation by increasing the cost of imported goods, sapping consumers’ purchasing power and making it harder to tackle Japan’s cost-of-living crisis. Photo: EPA
Japan

Macroscope | Will Japan’s corporate bond initiative signal a shift in Asia financing?

Japanese authorities are promoting the domestic corporate bond market as an alternative for firms seeking funding without losing control.

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A man stands in front of an electronic board displaying the closing numbers of the Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, in Tokyo, on April 2. Photo: AFP
India

Macroscope | How the rupee’s fall shows India’s struggle to overcome vulnerabilities

While India’s economy is stronger than it was in previous sell-offs, lingering weaknesses are coming to the fore and driving new tensions.

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China economy

Macroscope | Why investors should beware China safe haven narrative amid Iran crisis

While there is reason for optimism, the ceasefire in Iran remains tenuous and the return of inflation is not the kind China wants to see.

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Central banks

Macroscope | Asian central banks largely powerless in face of Iran war energy shock

Central banks cannot pump oil into the global economy in the same way they can flood the financial system with liquidity.

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Workers change the price of fuel at a petrol station in Manila on March 17. Photo: AFP
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war: Why a Trump climbdown won’t save Asia’s economies

Markets might be convinced Trump will chicken out again, but that won’t reassure Asian nations scrambling to deal with energy shortages.

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A delivery driver transports liquid petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders in Amritsar, Punjab state, in India on March 24. Two more Indian-flagged tankers carrying LPG passed through the Strait of Hormuz on March 23, marking a fresh set of exceptions in the chokepoint disrupted by the Middle East war. Photo: AFP
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Trump hasn’t counted on financial blowback from his war with Iran

As Washington fights a war with global economic ramifications, allies may soon begin to reassess their financial support of US coffers.

US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Iran war disruption just one of many threats to global markets

The danger from the Iran war cannot be assessed in isolation. Rather, it is one of several major vulnerabilities that could trigger a much sharper sell-off.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | How global debt is sowing the seeds of financial collapse

Markets have so far shrugged off wars and trade conflicts, but the rapid rise of already massive debt should alarm investors.

People with smartphones walk through the business district of Jakarta, Indonesia, in June 2022. Debt stocks have reached new highs across both advanced and emerging economies. Photo: NurPhoto via Getty Images
US, Israel war on Iran

Macroscope | Why even bullish investors can’t ignore the Iran war

Investors have grown used to brushing off geopolitical threats, but turmoil in the Middle East poses a greater risk to the global economy.

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Japan

Macroscope | Why Japan should push back on Trump’s investment demands

Trump’s use of tariff threats to strong-arm foreign governments, companies and investors into funding US projects should be resisted.

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United States

Macroscope | Normalisation of Trump’s chaos can only go so far

Markets assuming Trump will chicken out and downplaying risks contribute to the normalisation of the US president’s chaotic behaviour.

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US President Donald Trump delivers the State of the Union address during a joint session of Congress in the House Chamber at the Capitol in Washington on February 24. Photo: TNS
Japan

Macroscope | Why the IMF is right to press Japan on its fiscal risks

The fiscal and monetary policies of advanced economies have global repercussions, and Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal agenda risks market pushback.

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Japan’s Prime Minister and leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party Sanae Takaichi speaks during an election campaign event in Tokyo on February 7. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | US dollar weakness is no game changer for a globalised yuan

Beijing will seize on the crisis to promote the yuan, but without capital account liberalisation – essential for a truly global currency – its rise will remain limited.

Banking & finance

Macroscope | How robust domestic financial markets could ease era of AI uncertainty

Attempts to develop financial centres must go beyond luring global capital and talent.

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan will soon learn how far Takaichi can ride her luck

While Japan is unlikely to have its own Liz Truss moment, high debt levels and an empowered populist in charge are still reasons for concern.

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Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s prime minister and president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, puts in pins marking the names of candidates who won lower house elections, at the LDP headquarters in Tokyo, on February 8. Photo: AP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | Trump-Takaichi meddling in finance spells more turbulence ahead

The two leaders’ moves into economics despite their lack of knowledge threaten to further destabilise global finance and inflate debt levels.

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Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, (left) gestures as US President Donald Trump delivers a speech in front of US Navy personnel at the US naval base in Yokosuka, Japan, on October 28, 2025. Photo: AFP
Commodities

Macroscope | Blame Trump, not Asian investors, for gold and silver volatility

The global uncertainty stemming from Trump’s behaviour is roiling precious metals markets far more than any investment from Asia.

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Japan

Macroscope | Could Japan stop being the ballast of the bond market?

A lower house election victory would give flight to Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal expansionism – and introduce upheaval far beyond Japan.

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