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Macroscope

Macroscope
Daily insight on the hottest topics in the global economy, central bank policymaking and international trade flows, putting developments in their perspective for a China-oriented audience.
A man walks past ATM booths for Japan’s mega banks, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, left, and Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, in Tokyo, on February 6. Photo: Reuters
Banking & finance

Macroscope | How robust domestic financial markets could ease era of AI uncertainty

Attempts to develop financial centres must go beyond luring global capital and talent.

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Japan

Macroscope | Japan will soon learn how far Takaichi can ride her luck

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Trump-Takaichi meddling in finance spells more turbulence ahead

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Commodities

Macroscope | Blame Trump, not Asian investors, for gold and silver volatility

The global uncertainty stemming from Trump’s behaviour is roiling precious metals markets far more than any investment from Asia.

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Molten gold made from jewelry is poured into a mold to produce a gold bar at the Austrian Gold and Silver Refinery in Vienna, Austria on February 3. Photo: AFP
Japan

Macroscope | Could Japan stop being the ballast of the bond market?

A lower house election victory would give flight to Prime Minister Takaichi’s fiscal expansionism – and introduce upheaval far beyond Japan.

United States

Macroscope | Distracted at Davos, leaders are ignoring one critical issue

More attention needs to be paid to the state of US and global finances.

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United States

Macroscope | Multilateral institutions’ critique of Trump’s actions is too muted

US funding of multinational bodies seems to be keeping their critique muted. The power of the purse should not ensure immunity from criticism.

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US President Donald Trump dances at the Detroit Economic Club in Detroit, Michigan, on January 13. Photo: Reuters
United States

Macroscope | Investors are giving Trump a free pass

Markets, especially bond markets, are meant to be a disciplining force. Their inaction will only embolden Trump to act more recklessly.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Why Asian family businesses are pivoting to private equity

Family firms, the backbone of the Asian economy, have tended to be reluctant to go public but are increasingly open to private equity funding.

China stock market

Macroscope | Chinese stocks could be biggest winner of Venezuela fallout

Amid rising fears over an AI bubble and geopolitical strife, China’s push for self-reliance has left it more insulated from global storms.

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People walk below a large screen displaying the latest stock exchange and economic data in Shanghai on January 6. Photo: EPA
Japan

Macroscope | Japan’s economic security push heralds rising protectionism in Asia

The emphasis on securing supply chains and stockpiling critical resources is no substitute for free and open trade and investment.

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Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi gestures as US President Donald Trump delivers a speech in front of US Navy personnel on board the USS George Washington aircraft carrier at the US naval base in Yokosuka, Japan, on October 28. Photo: AFP
Artificial intelligence

Macroscope | Fears of an AI bubble in Asian stock markets are misplaced

The concentration risk so prevalent elsewhere is mitigated in Asia by a diverse equity landscape and the unique strengths in China.

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India

Macroscope | India and Japan show impact of Trump’s tariffs extend beyond trade

While Japan is grappling with acute policy dilemmas and AI bubble fears stalk markets, India seems relatively resilient and forward-looking.

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Banking & finance

Macroscope | Global stablecoin surge highlights overlooked risks in crypto finance

The politics around digital currencies have extended into the long-running battle for supremacy between the world’s major currencies.

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A pedestrian walks in front of a currency mural on a shop shutter in Hong Kong on December 2024. Photo: Antony Dickson
Bitcoin

Macroscope | Bitcoin’s bruising month shows the perils of going mainstream

Despite years of progress, the cryptocurrency is still in a vulnerable spot halfway between pure speculation and institutional adoption.

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Eric Trump, executive vice-president of the Trump Organisation, attends the Bitcoin Asia conference, in Hong Kong, on August 29. Photo: Reuters
Climate change

Macroscope | What China, not the free market, gets right about climate finance

China’s central and local governments and state entities are willing to issue or guarantee green bonds on a scale unmatched elsewhere.

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South Korea

Macroscope | South Korea’s challenges a taste of what’s to come for global economy

While South Korea has been a big beneficiary of the AI boom, the surge is also highlighting its domestic and geopolitical vulnerabilities.

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Stocks

Macroscope | Does emerging markets’ stellar run this year have legs?

Emerging market equities have seen their longest winning streak since 2004, but it is premature to talk of a renaissance.

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A man checks the latest stock exchange data on a computer screen at his shop in Shanghai on October 30. Photo: EPA
Trade

Macroscope | Exports no longer enough to lift Asia out of ‘middle-income trap’

Developing nations are being urged to boost domestic demand and mutual trade to drive growth, but key factors like population ageing must also be addressed.

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United States

Macroscope | Has Trump 2.0 really been a boon to stock markets and the economy?

Although asset prices performed strongly this year and there has been no recession, Trump’s second term is a Rubicon-crossing moment for the US and global economy.

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Trade

Macroscope | Asia’s trading powerhouses are more Trump-proof than many feared

High US tariffs not only did not cripple export-oriented economies like South Korea, thanks to the AI boom, but they also pushed policymakers to embark on reforms.

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A staff member of the Inter-university Semiconductor Research Centre at Seoul National University in Seoul at work on April 30. South Korea recorded its highest ever semiconductor exports in September, official data showed on October 1, despite growing pressure from US tariffs and other restrictions on the crucial sector. Photo: AFP
Banking & finance

Macroscope | 4 reasons fears of an AI-fuelled stock market bubble are overdone

While many believe the stock market is in an AI-induced bubble, there are factors that paint a more optimistic picture.

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Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on October 22. Just 10 companies account for over half the rise in the value of US stocks. Photo: Reuters
China inflation

Macroscope | Forget inflation, deflation poses bigger risk to Asia’s economies

While Asia has not had inflation worries for some time, its economic future has become more closely tied to China’s, with all that entails.

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Commodities

Macroscope | Global uncertainty driving gold prices higher despite bubble fears

Even with stock markets surging, the price of gold is hitting new records as investors seek out stability.

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Central banks

Macroscope | Why the cost of buying economic growth is destined to rise

The apparent resilience of the global economy in the face of a series of shocks comes amid dangerously high debt levels.

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A woman walks past signs displaying prices in US dollars in Caracas, Venezuela, on June 2. Photo: AFP
Japan

Macroscope | 4 reasons Japan’s yen safe haven trade is a distant memory

While the Japanese currency’s reputation as a safe haven was always overblown, the stability that supported it is now a thing of the past.

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People walk in a shopping area in Tokyo’s Shinjuku on September 11. Japan is experiencing cost-push inflation – price rises driven by the weak yen and exacerbated by the cost of imported raw materials, food and energy. Photo: Reuters
China economy

Macroscope | Tide may finally be turning in China’s battle against deflation

With economic indicators offering reasons to hope, the only question is how quickly and decisively Beijing can revive domestic demand.

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Cryptocurrency

Macroscope | In the crypto vs gold struggle, new battle lines are being drawn

The finance world is in flux, with stablecoin issuer Tether investing heavily in the metal it has been trying to usurp as a primary means of exchange.

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