China GDP figures beat market forecasts despite looming US tariff risks

China’s economy expanded by 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, keeping it broadly on track to meet this year’s growth target. But analysts cautioned that weak domestic demand and rising external uncertainties could provoke a slowdown in the second half of 2025. The closely watched gross domestic product (GDP) figures, released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on July 15, 2025, came in above the 5.17 per cent forecast by a poll of economists from the Chinese financial data provider Wind. The robust headline figures suggest that China’s economy has remained resilient in the face of an ongoing trade war with the United States, even as Chinese goods still face an effective US tariff rate of more than 40 per cent, according to Morgan Stanley estimates