On Reflection | Congress can recover from election drubbing by Modi – if it looks to Kerala: Shashi Tharoor

The BJP’s individual performance has stunned many observers – the party has on its own managed to retain a majority in India’s 543-member Lok Sabha (Lower House), securing 303 seats and 37.6 per cent of the national vote, even improving on its performance in 2014 when it won 282 seats. In contrast, my own party, the Indian National Congress, was relegated to a distant runner-up position with 52 seats, a marginal improvement from the 44 we secured in the previous edition.

Voter behaviour in these elections has largely surprised most political observers. For instance, there is a well-recognised political dictum that voters tend to cast their ballots keeping in mind their economic self-interest. The key economic issues of the previous five years of BJP rule have been well documented – a slowdown in GDP growth, unemployment levels touching a 45-year high, and widespread agrarian stagnation reducing many of our farmers to such distress that record numbers have committed suicide.

The Modi government’s disastrous management of the economy included the abrupt and impulsive demonetisation of 86 per cent of India’s currency, causing, among other calamities, the shutting down of many thousands of micro, small and medium enterprises that are the engine of India’s economy. Extortionate taxes levied on petrol kept fuel costs artificially high while they were falling around the world. In short, there was plenty to suggest that voters would act on these economic concerns and reject the government under whose watch they took place.

And yet, as the results have extraordinarily made clear, the BJP was able to persuade people to vote their prejudices rather than their economic interests. After all, why would a young man who voted for Modi in 2014, expecting to get a job that he needs, vote for him again in 2019 when he is still unemployed? He does so, apparently, because he is consumed by the fear of enemies within and without, stoked by the BJP campaign, and sees in Modi his protector.

Modi came to power in 2014 after articulating a vision of a revived India, a manufacturing giant with hi-tech capabilities that could meet the rising aspirations of a growing young population. Modi promised voters that his administration would be an era of achhe din (good times), marked by “minimum government, maximum governance”, inclusive development, high employment, and rising economic growth and prosperity. Voters believed him in droves.