ICC’s denial of Duterte’s release raises Philippines political stakes ahead of 2028 race

Name: Will Duterte become Asia’s first ex-leader convicted by the International Criminal Court?
Uploaded: 2025-12-01T11:48:45.000Z
Duration: 7 min 19 s
Description: Will Duterte become Asia’s first ex-leader convicted by the International Criminal Court?

Observers said the ruling may energise loyalists but is unlikely to sway undecided voters or ease the rivalry shaping Philippine politics

Reading Time:4 minutes

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Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte appears via video link during an ICC hearing in The Hague in March 2025. Photo: Reuters

Raissa Robles

Published: 7:48pm, 1 Dec 2025

The International Criminal Court’s ruling that Rodrigo Duterte is too politically connected to be trusted on interim release – citing his entrenched networks and even a “joke” from his daughter about breaking him out – has entwined the former president’s legal predicament with the political dynamics shaping the 2028 race.

Analysts told This Week in Asia that the decision has narrowed the 80-year-old’s room for political manoeuvre while potentially strengthening, under some circumstances, the positioning of his daughter Sara Duterte-Carpio, the current vice-president.

In a forty-page decision delivered on Friday, the ICC’s Appeals Chamber ordered Duterte to remain in detention in The Hague as he awaits arraignment for crimes against humanity linked to his anti-drug campaign – a crackdown that, according to official police data, killed more than 6,000 alleged drug suspects, although human rights groups and the court’s own filings argue the true toll could be as high as 30,000.

Duterte did not appear during the hearing, with counsel Nicolas Kaufman attending on his behalf.

07:19

Will Duterte become Asia’s first ex-leader convicted by the International Criminal Court?

The former leader had been set for arraignment on September 23 after being arrested in Manila and flown to the Netherlands on March 11. Kaufman then filed an urgent plea for interim release, which the pre-trial chamber rejected on September 26 before the matter was elevated to the Appeals Chamber.

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ICC’s denial of Duterte’s release raises Philippines political stakes ahead of 2028 race

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Observers said the ruling may energise loyalists but is unlikely to sway undecided voters or ease the rivalry shaping Philippine politics

Observers said the ruling may energise loyalists but is unlikely to sway undecided voters or ease the rivalry shaping Philippine politics