Is Philippines being unfairly targeted in Australia’s Bondi Beach shooting?

Extremist movements in the Philippines have come under scrutiny since it was revealed that two suspected terrorists had visited the country weeks before they killed 15 people in Australia, but observers argue that such threats have waned and officials should avoid “overreach” in linking the case. Sajid Akram, 50, and his son Naveed Akram, 24, had allegedly opened fire on people at Sydney’s Bondi Beach during a Hanukkah celebration on Sunday. The older man was killed while Naveed was in critical condition after police intervened. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday the duo appeared to have been influenced by Islamic State ideology. Also on Tuesday, Australian police said they were looking into a trip the two had made to the Philippines last month. Philippine immigration officials have confirmed the father and son landed in Manila and had then flown to Davao City in the south on November 1, before leaving nearly a month later on November 28. Davao City is a key hub on the island of Mindanao, serving as a transit point for other provinces in southern Philippines that have been embroiled in past insurgent conflict. Local authorities, however, said on Wednesday there was “no confirmation” that the men had travelled outside Davao City. Philippine news outlet MindaNews reported that the duo had checked in at a budget hotel in the city, where they barely left their rooms and frequently ordered fast food takeaway. Manila officials have been quick to reject any links to the pair. Presidential spokeswoman Claire Castro denied they had received military training in the country – as reported by Australian news media – and warned against “sweeping” misrepresentation of the Philippines as a hotbed of violent extremism. The southern island of Mindanao has been saddled with conflict and militant activity for decades, with separatist groups such as the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) waging war against military forces in secession bids. Groups such as the Abu Sayyaf emerged in the 1990s as an extremist faction of the nationalist movement, pledging allegiance first to al-Qaeda and Jemaah Islamiah, and later to Isis. In 2017, Isis-aligned groups joined forces to occupy Marawi City in Lanao del Norte province. The five-month conflict resulted in over 1,200 deaths and forced more than 350,000 to flee, before government forces regained control of the city. ‘Directionless and leaderless’ Since 2020, though, violent extremist threats in the region have largely declined, according to analysts. On Tuesday, the Philippines Armed Forces said the number of individuals affiliated with localised extremist groups had fallen from over 1,200 in 2016 to 50. Kenneth Yeo, an associate research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said Isis-linked groups experienced “collective demoralisation” following the pandemic. “Today, Islamic State elements in the Philippines can be described as directionless and leaderless,” Yeo said. An executive order implemented during Rodrigo Duterte’s administration following the Marawi siege in 2017 led to a mass exodus, he said. The Philippine military’s counter-insurgency efforts of hunting down the leaders of extremist groups had largely demoralised its ranks, leading to increasing numbers of surrenders, according to Yeo. Over 1,600 combatants surrendered to the Philippine government in 2023. Ann Bajo, a teaching fellow at the Royal Air Force College, said Australian authorities should “exercise caution about [accusing] the Philippines of harbouring terrorists, especially without clear evidence”. Today’s militant landscape is not the same post-pandemic Ann Bajo, a Royal Air Force College teaching fellow “Today’s militant landscape is not the same post-pandemic,” she said, pointing out that extremist groups had suffered setbacks when the military took back Marawi City and Covid lockdowns restricted their movement. The Australian claims were based on speculation about MILF and Abu Sayyaf’s historical territorial sanctuaries in the 2010s, which did not exist any more, Yeo said. “If the father-son duo received military-style training in the Philippines, they would not have been allowed to leave within a month. Moreover, what we observed in Bondi Beach only indicated proficiency in the use of arms. There was nothing ‘military-style’ about that,” he said. In addition, nationalist groups such as the MILF and MNLF are unlikely to want to jeopardise a peace pact they have with the Philippine government after the establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, according to Bajo. Extremist groups such as the Abu Sayyaf would simply not have the capacity to conduct such operations. Both analysts warn, however, that continuing political, socioeconomic and security conditions in the Southeast Asian country mean that “there will always be remnants of forms of terrorism and extremism in the Philippines”. “A victory at Marawi does not guarantee an eradication of terrorism. Muslim insurgency and local terrorist groups have been in existence even before the rise of Isis,” Bajo said. Geopolitical events such as the conflict in Gaza might be “exploited for recruitment and extremist ideologies”, she added. “It is also important to clarify that this does not spell the end of terrorism in Mindanao,” Yeo said. “It is just that their operational capacity has reduced significantly.”

Is Philippines being unfairly targeted in Australia’s Bondi Beach shooting?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Australian police are looking into a trip the two suspects made to Davao City, but Philippine officials say it is not connected to the shooting

Australian police are looking into a trip the two suspects made to Davao City, but Philippine officials say it is not connected to the shooting