Will Iran collapse without Khamenei or can its regime endure?
Experts see short-term stability, but warn that deeper structural strains could emerge once the immediate shock subsides
Analysts said the immediate signs point less to collapse than to hardening continuity, at least for now, as security institutions close ranks, the battlefield expands and signs of internal rupture remain absent.
Even so, they warned that the greater danger might lie in what follows: not an orderly transition, but a contested interim period in which power shifts further towards the military establishment.
“They may be able to administer the country, but the regime’s survival will depend on their ability to reach a deal with the United States, obtain sanctions relief, and improve the economy,” said political scientist Ali Alfoneh, author of Political Succession in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
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Iran’s Supreme leader Khamenei confirmed dead after US-Israeli strikes
“Otherwise, they will face an angry and impoverished public returning to the streets, which could eventually exhaust the security services and make collapse inevitable,” he told This Week In Asia.
Within hours of Khamenei’s killing, Iran’s security apparatus signalled that operations would continue. Paramilitary units were deployed nationwide to deter unrest, as observers said Tehran sought to project control at home while escalating abroad.