Australia’s US$7 billion Japan warship deals signals shift from US overreliance

A landmark warship deal between Australia and Japan is expected to drive further defence technology cooperation between the two Asia-Pacific nations, comparable in scope to Canberra’s security arrangements with Washington. Analysts say the agreement with Tokyo will also help Canberra address navy shortfalls and reduce its overreliance on the US at a time of great volatility. Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles and his Japanese counterpart Shinjiro Koizumi announced on Saturday that the two countries had signed contracts for the first three of 11 Mogami-class frigates to be delivered to the Royal Australian Navy under a landmark US$7 billion deal. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries will build the first three frigates in Japan for delivery in 2029. The remaining eight will be constructed at a shipyard in Western Australia. Marles described the Japanese frigates as a major step towards building a larger and more lethal Australian surface combat fleet. “The time frame that we’ve announced is the fastest acquisition of a surface combatant into service in the Royal Australian Navy ever,” he said. Canberra announced last August that Japan had won the contract over Germany to provide the next-generation fleet. Tom Corben, a research fellow with the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, said the deal was more than just a capability agreement or a strategic signal. It held the potential to widen the defence partnership by promoting other forms of capability and technological cooperation that could “deliver well in advance of the first Mogami”, he said. Australia is overreliant on US defence, intelligence and technologies and it’ll be hard to replace it Philipp Ivanov, geopolitical risk strategist “Aukus is basically driving this sort of agenda for Australia and the US. There’s no reason that Mogami couldn’t do something similar for Australia and Japan.” That could include closer alignment on cyber standards and defence trade security policies, as well as collaboration on high-end technologies such as missile production and drone development, Corben said. Under Aukus – the trilateral pact between Australia, Britain and the US – Canberra is set to acquire conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines from Washington. Its “Pillar Two” strand aims to accelerate development of advanced defence technologies, including AI, quantum computing, undersea capabilities, hypersonic weapons and cyber. Boosting firepower Rintaro Inoue, a research fellow at the Tokyo-based Institute of Geoeconomics, said the Australian navy was grappling with acute shortages in both hulls and firepower amid “a major maritime challenge from China”. Australia currently operates 10 large surface combatants, its smallest fleet since the end of World War II. The government aims to expand that to 26 vessels over the next decade. The Mogami-class frigates would “substantially” increase the Royal Australian Navy’s firepower, raising its vertical launch system (VLS) cell count from 200 to 352, Inoue said. VLS cells represent a vessel’s firepower and multi-mission capacity. For context, the US Navy reportedly fields around 8,000 cells and China’s navy around 4,000. “These frigates can potentially be installed with Tomahawks and SM-6 missiles if the Australian government decides to make substantial design changes, bringing even more firepower to the fleet,” Inoue added. The upgraded Mogami was chosen over competing designs from South Korea, Spain and Germany as it best aligned with the Australian navy’s operational requirements, Inoue said. “[They] needed a frigate that could conduct undersea warfare, protect itself, defend maritime trade routes and escort aircraft carriers,” he said. The deal also made “strategic sense” given the growing regularity of Australian-Japanese joint exercises, Inoue added. Major bilateral maritime drills such as Exercise Nichi Gou Trident have been held annually or biennially since 2009, and under the Reciprocal Access Agreement their frequency and complexity have increased, with a growing trend towards US participation. Philipp Ivanov, founder of advisory firm Geopolitical Risks and Strategy Practice, said the warship deal should be seen in the context of Australia’s National Defence Strategy (NDS), which calls for greater investment in defence capabilities. The latest NDS, unveiled on April 16, focuses on deterrence, with an additional A$14 billion (US$10 billion) to be spent over four years to address what it calls an increasingly “dangerous and unpredictable” regional environment. “The reality, however, is Australia is overreliant on US defence, intelligence and technologies and it’ll be hard to replace it,” Ivanov said. He said the Iran war had “laid bare” key Australian defence vulnerabilities, including energy and fuel security and the uncertainty of its alliance with Washington under US President Donald Trump. It also exposed “competing demands between immediate support for the local economy amid fuel crises and long-term investment in sovereign defence capabilities”, Ivanov added.

Australia’s US$7 billion Japan warship deals signals shift from US overreliance

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The formalised deal offers Canberra a strategic alternative to uncertain US defence ties, analysts say

The formalised deal offers Canberra a strategic alternative to uncertain US defence ties, analysts say