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Julian Ryall

A Japanese lawmaker’s claim that China has its eyes on “a treasure trove” of resource wealth hidden beneath the Antarctic ice sheet has been dismissed by a polar law expert as a misreading of international obligations.
But the claims made in parliament by Mitsuhiro Yokota, a member of the Japan Innovation Party, have also raised questions about what might happen to the world’s last great wilderness in future.
“Beneath Antarctica lies a treasure trove of oil, natural gas, coal, iron ore, gold and platinum,” Yokota told a Foreign Affairs Committee in the Diet on May 15.
“China naturally wants to acquire Antarctic resources. After all, they are talking about taking resources from the moon.”
Antarctica is a lucrative area for countries like China and Russia
Mitsuhiro Yokota, Japanese lawmaker
Yokota, whose party forms part of Japan’s governing coalition alongside Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party, went further.
“Antarctica is a lucrative area for countries like China and Russia,” he said. “I think it’s safe to say that it is definitely being targeted.”
The crux of Yokota’s argument rests on what some call the “2048 problem”: the claim that the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty – an international agreement banning all commercial mining and oil drilling in Antarctica – will expire 50 years after it entered force, throwing the continent open to whoever moves fastest.
But Akiho Shibata, director of the Polar Cooperation Research Centre at Kobe University and an expert in polar law, said it did not work that way.
Any modification to the protocol would require majority support from all parties, including three-quarters of the 26 consultative nations that were party to the agreement when it was first signed in 1991.

Japan’s own foreign ministry told the parliamentary committee that the likelihood of a new framework being introduced was “low”, and that Tokyo, alongside many other signatories, supported keeping the prohibition in place.
“The protocol was agreed in 1991, at a time when there were different views on the future of the mineral resources on Antarctica,” Shibata said.
“There were some, like Japan and the US, that were in favour of exploiting those resources, but others believed that the technology of the time could not ensure the protection of the natural environment.”
The compromise was a 50-year prohibition with a review mechanism, not an expiry date, he said – adding that nations did retain the right to withdraw from the treaty, which might have been the source of Yokota’s concerns.

Expanding footprint
China’s physical footprint on Antarctica has steadily grown over the years.
It now has five established bases on the continent and is planning a sixth on Marie Byrd Land, a 1.6-million sq km (618,000 square mile) expanse of unclaimed territory that represents the largest such land mass remaining on Earth.
Yokota claimed in parliament that a Japanese research team had, in 2022, discovered observation equipment installed by China around 20km (12 miles) south of Japan’s permanent Antarctic base, known as Showa Station.
He further called on the government to make “considerable efforts” to ensure the region was not commercially exploited and to counter any territorial claims put forward by other nations.


Stephen Nagy, a professor of international relations at Tokyo’s International Christian University who recently briefed the Canadian government on China’s strategic posture in the Arctic, said Japan should keep a close eye on polar activity.
“In the Arctic, China is very interested in exploiting resources, accessing energy and critical minerals and opening up sea lanes that dramatically reduce the distance between Chinese ports and North America and Europe,” he said.
“It is not a stretch at all to say that China and others would be very interested in similar resources and critical minerals in Antarctica,” Nagy added, noting that while international law constrained what nations could do in polar regions, there was “no global cop” to enforce it.
One nation breaking ranks to drill or mine could trigger a rush, with others unwilling to watch rivals pocket resources uncontested, Nagy said, citing the example set by US President Donald Trump and his fixation on acquiring Greenland for the presumed riches buried beneath its ice sheet.


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Japanese MP’s claim China eyes Antarctic ‘treasure trove’ dismissed

An aerial view of China’s Qinling Station, the country’s fifth research station in Antarctica, in 2024. Photo: Xinhua

Emperor penguins in Antarctica. Japan’s own foreign ministry has dismissed speculation about a polar mining ban being overturned. Photo: British Antarctic Survey/AFP

An aerial view of China’s Qinling Station in Antarctica. Photo: Xinhua

Russia’s military activity has Japan fearing a dual-front war

F-15J Eagle fighter aircraft of the Japan Air Self-Defence Force prepare for take-off at Chitose Air Base, Hokkaido prefecture, in 2017. Photo: AFP

Japan’s Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi holds a press conference on May 19. He has called Russia’s military posture around Japan “a cause for serious concern”. Photo: Kyodo

An F-15J Eagle fighter jet of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force at Chitose Air Base, Hokkaido prefecture, in 2017. Photo: AFP

A Japanese coastguard vessel and small boats sail alongside an activists’ fishing boat near the disputed Diaoyu Islands, which Tokyo administers and calls the Senkakus. Photo: AP

Russian MiG-31 fighter jets equipped with hypersonic “Kinzhal” ballistic missiles are seen in this still image taken from a handout video last year. Photo: Russia Defence Ministry Press Service/EPA

Is China a key motivation for Australia’s A$804 million Antarctica funding boost?

An aerial view of the campsite beside China’s Kunlun Station in Antarctica. File photo: Xinhua

Australia has the largest sovereign claim over Antarctica. Photo: Geoscience Australia

Prime Minister Scott Morrison, left, with Australian Antarctic Division Director Kim Ellis and Environment Minister Sussan Ley. Photo: Australian Antarctic Division

China’s Kunlun Station in the Antarctic. File photo: Xinhua 

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southpole

south pole

sharifah

The South Pole: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Sharifah Mazlina.

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A polar law expert says the continent’s strict mining ban has no expiry date, despite concerns raised in Japan’s parliament


A polar law expert says the continent’s strict mining ban has no expiry date, despite concerns raised in Japan’s parliament.


Japanese MP’s claim China eyes Antarctic ‘treasure trove’ dismissed

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A polar law expert says the continent’s strict mining ban has no expiry date, despite concerns raised in Japan’s parliament

A polar law expert says the continent’s strict mining ban has no expiry date, despite concerns raised in Japan’s parliament