Is Trump calling the shots on Israel, or just pretending to?

Scepticism is rife about US President Donald Trump’s claims to have reprimanded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu over recent military escalations with Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran despite ceasefires negotiated by Washington. While Netanyahu’s apparent defiance is widely seen as an embarrassment to Trump, analysts say the mercurial US leader has done little more than wag his finger at his ally. In his latest interview with Israeli journalist Barak Ravid for US website Axios on Monday, Trump claimed to have warned the Israeli prime minister: “Bibi, you better be careful, or you will be on your own very soon.” Taken together with Trump’s assertion last week that he had called Netanyahu “crazy” and accused him of ingratitude during a phone call, the US president has appeared eager to show that he, not Netanyahu, is “calling the shots”. Analysts are not convinced, however, with some arguing that Netanyahu’s apparent defiance over retaliating against Iran has made Trump look weak. More jaded voices see Trump’s comments – alongside Netanyahu’s resolute willingness to act unilaterally when he chooses – as political theatre aimed at their respective domestic audiences, ahead of a forthcoming general election in Israel and midterm poll in the US. A third school of thought holds that the public airing of differences amounts to a mind game designed to keep Tehran guessing as Pakistan-mediated talks edge towards an agreement to end the conflict. Veteran Middle East observer Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Centre think tank in Washington, believes the reality is likely “a combination of all of the above”. Israel’s continued flouting of Trump’s admonitions “does make Trump look weak”, she said. However, Trump “can endlessly rationalise the violations of the ceasefire as long as there is not a return” to the levels of violence since before the truce, initially agreed on April 8. Israeli-American analyst Shaiel Ben-Ephraim believes reported feuds between the two allies are “sometimes real and Trump is sometimes frustrated with Netanyahu”. Trump and his team leaked stories to Axios journalist Ravid “to make it seem like Trump is not in Netanyahu’s pocket”, he said. “But it doesn’t matter”, Israel had “penetrated Trump’s circle and has tremendous influence through key vectors” such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and senior Republican senator Lindsey Graham. “Together they know how to manipulate Trump and get the outcomes they want,” said Ben-Ephraim, a senior analyst with strategic advisory firm Atlas Global Strategies. Political scientist Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Arab Gulf States Institute, said he suspected the Netanyahu-Trump relationship “is now a love/hate relationship devoid of love”. Netanyahu “deceived Trump twice” to draw the US into war against Iran, and “the president has had enough”, Alfoneh said. Yet analysts also note that Trump frequently uses Netanyahu’s escalatory tendencies as leverage in negotiations with Tehran. Slavin, who believes there is “not that much” actual tension between the two men, said Trump might “even find it useful at times that Bibi escalates the conflict, as it prevents a deal with Iran that Trump is unlikely to be able to portray as a victory worth all the human and economic losses of the past four months”. Ben-Ephraim went further, arguing that Trump “does not really want a deal because he is unwilling to pay the political cost”, particularly the unfreezing of billions of dollars in seized Iranian funds. Trump has nonetheless shown that he is capable of overriding Netanyahu on major decisions, notably by backing Syria’s new government, ending the Gaza war and agreeing to the ceasefire with Iran. At the same time, Israel continues to operate with apparent impunity in Gaza, the West Bank and southwest Syria, albeit within certain US-defined parameters. Alfoneh attributes this to Trump’s broader support for regional powers maintaining spheres of influence, with tensions arising when a country such as Iran “does not recognise Israel as regional hegemon and the US is dragged into wars to consolidate Israeli regional hegemony”. When it really matters, Bibi does what he wants Shaiel Ben-Ephraim, Israeli-American analyst Ben-Ephraim also notes that Trump is influenced by other Middle Eastern actors, particularly the Gulf monarchies of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, with which his family has business ties. “That is where the disagreements about Syria and Lebanon come from,” Ben-Ephraim said. Netanyahu, however, has been “smart enough to take a step back at times on matters that are not of massive importance to him, in order to gain freedom of action in places that are”, he said. In doing so, the Israeli leader had allowed Trump to feel he was in control, while “in reality, he is being tugged in various directions by Middle Eastern actors, often letting the last person he talked to prevail,” Ben-Ephraim said. “When it really matters, Bibi does what he wants. He knows Trump will never make a long-term public spectacle of fighting him.” Slavin also doubted there would be a rupture. In Netanyahu, she said, Trump saw “another talented and amoral politician willing to do almost anything to stay in power and out of jail. They are birds of a feather.” Alfoneh, meanwhile, cautioned against underestimating “the power of the Israel lobby in the US, nor the strategic logic that has hitherto bound the two countries together”. Analysts therefore broadly expect the relationship to survive whatever electoral reckoning both leaders face once the Iran conflict concludes. Nor do they anticipate Trump blaming Netanyahu for entangling the US in what has proved to be an unwinnable war that succeeded in eliminating Iran’s top leadership and inflicting widespread devastation, but fell short of its wider objectives. Trump’s own vanity … led him to go to war Barbara Slavin, veteran Middle East observer “Trump knew what he was doing, or thought he did. Netanyahu played a role but Trump’s own vanity – believing he could overthrow or materially alter a regime in place for 47 years – led him to go to war” Slavin said. Ben-Ephraim concurred. While Netanyahu had a “massive role in getting the US involved in Iran … that was not the only factor.” Trump wanted to “outdo” former president Barack Obama by forcing Iran to relinquish uranium enrichment, and was “high on his own supply after the relatively successful Venezuela operation”, he said. In his own mind, the war on Iran was “all Trump’s idea”, Ben-Ephraim said. “Therefore, he has not blamed Israel for this, at least not much.”

Is Trump calling the shots on Israel, or just pretending to?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The US president says he’s losing patience with Israel’s prime minister. Analysts say he’s just playing to the crowd

The US president says he’s losing patience with Israel’s prime minister. Analysts say he’s just playing to the crowd