The in-form combination of trainer Caspar Fownes and his former apprentice Vincent Ho Chak-yiu can be counted on to deliver a banker in the last leg of the Triple Trio tomorrow night at Happy Valley with Born To Win.
Fownes and Ho are both in tremendous individual form - the trainer has cleared out in front early in the quest for back-to-back titles with 14 wins, double the total of his nearest rival.
Ho has 11 winners from as many meetings, trailing just Joao Moreira, Zac Purton and Douglas Whyte and is in line to ride at the International Jockeys Championship in December as leading local rider.
But the trainer-jockey combination has been deadly, having combined for seven wins already this season at a strike rate of 35 per cent, and 15 of their 20 runners have finished in the top three.
A better barrier draw and switch back to Happy Valley make Born To Win a solid pick in a weak Class Three handicap over 1,650m.
Born To Win won twice last season, in January and then again in June in the midst of Fownes' championship winning run. Two more placings put the gelding in Class Three, where he started as an import two seasons back.
Even though both of Born To Win's victories were at Sha Tin last term, over 1,200m and 1,400m, he has won over the course and distance and his record at the track is adequate.
It is not so much Born To Win's form or class, just a lack of opposition with much of either that make him the standout. He was a first-up fourth, beaten two lengths at Sha Tin, when pushed to sit handy in a very fast-run race where the swoopers charged over the top of him late.
From gate two he can be close without working for as long. The main dangers are top weight Holmes Legend (Whyte) and Real Supreme (Matthew Chadwick) and after that the race seems to drop off sharply.
Holmes Legend may not yet have peaked at a rating of 80, he seems to have grown out of the problems that plagued him early on here, and he has drawn nicely as well. He was a horse that got better as last season wore on and maybe it will take him a few runs to come to hand.
Real Supreme, on the other hand, is in peak fitness already after two runs over 1,400m at the bigger track. He won in Class Two less than two years ago and once reached triple figures in the ratings. Now seven, and with 50 starts behind him, 63 is starting to look like a dangerous mark, especially after two strong efforts. Look for him to make the running and be very hard to get past.
After that it is hard to know where to go next, but Why Not (Andreas Suborics) looks to be finding his level in the handicaps again after getting too high in the ratings after a four-win season, during Dennis Yip Chor-hong's championship term. Other risky options are First Sight Love (Moreira) and Jaeger Bomb (Purton).
It' is tough to find a banker in the opening leg, a Class Four over the extended mile, and taking Plain Blue Banner (Whyte) as a banker - a horse coming out of Class Five - would not fill most punters with confidence. He has run well without luck in the grade previously, has drawn well and Whyte gets down to 118 pounds to ride.
Take him ahead of Verdane (Moreira), Genuine Champion (Suborics), Zachary (Karis Teetan) and Peppermint (Ho) - another runner for Fownes and Ho that has dropped to a winnable rating and has drawn low.
In the middle leg, the onus will be on Purton to get the sometimes tricky Jade Pippo to jump clean and take advantage of gate one in a Class Four over 1,200m. If he can, Jade Pippo will be positioned ideally behind the speed and can get past fellow lightweight and likely leader Excitable Boy (Alex Lai Hoi-wing) late.
Excitable Boy goes in, and is a decent banker, too, along with Real Fit (Suborics) from a tricky draw.
Baltic Warrior (Moreira) looks a good option backing up from a decent run-on effort on Sunday over the course and distance, when he was taken back from the widest draw. Expect a more aggressive ride from gate six here.
